Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (78%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 3.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 23¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 1

Over23¢Under77¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.3K

Combined PnL

-$575.16

Smart Money Entry

47.4¢ → 22.5¢

-52% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over23%

Under78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares3,562

Combined PnL+$81.18

Over6 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares5,507

Combined PnL-$656.33

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Over 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 48.1¢	$5.6K	$4.1K	$-1.2K	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
└ Under leg	Underavg 62¢	$1.7K	$2.1K	+$365.59
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.1¢	$3.9K	$2.0K	$-1.5K
MY myxi	Underavg 71¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$23.21	67% 378-183 (561)
RN1CTR	Overavg 49¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$541.63	54% 57169-49417 (106586)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 69¢	$822.45	$923.39	+$100.94	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 48.8¢	$673.2	$606.67	-$66.53	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Overavg 30.6¢	$249.55	$257.87	+$8.32	50% 11182-10991 (22173)
└ Over leg	Overavg 30.6¢	$174.57	$171.42	-$3.15
└ Under leg	Underavg 60.7¢	$74.98	$86.45	+$11.47
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR	Overavg 47.9¢	$205.85	$189.13	-$16.72	32% 742-1577 (2319)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 36.5¢	$182.5	$150	-$32.5	55% 3009-2439 (5448)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 29¢	$29	$30	+$1	48% 8966-9597 (18563)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 68.2¢	$25.39	$28.84	+$3.44	53% 5640-5054 (10694)
LA LaarsYCTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$1.51	$1.54	+$0.04	51% 3435-3355 (6790)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$5,622.31

Value

$4.1K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

Both legs:

Under$1,747.0262¢+$365.59

Over$3,875.2948.1¢$-1.5K

myxi

Under

Invested

$1,656.31

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$23.21

Record

67%

378-183 (561)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$1,516.55

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$541.63

Record

54%

57169-49417 (106586)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$822.45

Value

$923.39

PnL

+$100.94

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$673.2

Value

$606.67

PnL

-$66.53

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

fooooolARB<$100

Over

Invested

$249.55

Value

$257.87

PnL

+$8.32

Record

50%

11182-10991 (22173)

Both legs:

Over$174.5730.6¢-$3.15

Under$74.9860.7¢+$11.47

0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR

Over

Invested

$205.85

Value

$189.13

PnL

-$16.72

Record

32%

742-1577 (2319)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$182.5

Value

$150

PnL

-$32.5

Record

55%

3009-2439 (5448)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$29

Value

$30

PnL

+$1

Record

48%

8966-9597 (18563)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$25.39

Value

$28.84

PnL

+$3.44

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

LaarsYCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.51

Value

$1.54

PnL

+$0.04

Record

51%

3435-3355 (6790)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Over 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.4%

22.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$309.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

409.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.