Hamburg Towers vs. Mitteldeutscher BC

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Mitteldeutscher BC (63%) · Mitteldeutscher BC at 79¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 8

Hamburg Towers21¢Mitteldeutscher BC79¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Mitteldeutscher BC

Consensus Traders

Mitteldeutscher BC 63%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$264.86

Smart Money Entry

57.2¢ → 79¢

+38% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidMitteldeutscher BC at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mitteldeutscher BC

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Hamburg Towers21%

Mitteldeutscher BC79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mitteldeutscher BC5 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,600

Combined PnL+$281.57

Hamburg Towers3 traders

Total Value$291.54

Total Shares611

Combined PnL-$16.71

Mitteldeutscher BC — 63%Hamburg Towers — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Mitteldeutscher BCavg 58.6¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$178.88	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Mitteldeutscher BCavg 50.2¢	$198.02	$303.38	+$105.36	48% 1065-1165 (2230)
MY myxiCTR	Hamburg Towersavg 50¢	$222	$204.42	-$17.58	67% 378-183 (561)
poshposh<$100	Mitteldeutscher BCavg 58¢	$62.42	$59.73	-$2.69	58% 10670-7656 (18326)
BE berlinskiesCTR<$100	Hamburg Towersavg 44¢	$49.98	$49.41	-$0.57	58% 5891-4317 (10208)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	Hamburg Towersavg 40¢	$36.27	$37.71	+$1.44	85% 5885-1004 (6889)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Mitteldeutscher BCavg 55¢	$28.93	$29.19	+$0.26	50% 3947-3930 (7877)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Mitteldeutscher BCavg 57¢	$27.36	$27.12	-$0.24	57% 29237-21620 (50857)

SnakeBall

Mitteldeutscher BC

Invested

$1,170.36

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$178.88

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Mitteldeutscher BC

Invested

$198.02

Value

$303.38

PnL

+$105.36

Record

48%

1065-1165 (2230)

myxiCTR

Hamburg Towers

Invested

$222

Value

$204.42

PnL

-$17.58

Record

67%

378-183 (561)

poshposh<$100

Mitteldeutscher BC

Invested

$62.42

Value

$59.73

PnL

-$2.69

Record

58%

10670-7656 (18326)

berlinskiesCTR<$100

Hamburg Towers

Invested

$49.98

Value

$49.41

PnL

-$0.57

Record

58%

5891-4317 (10208)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

Hamburg Towers

Invested

$36.27

Value

$37.71

PnL

+$1.44

Record

85%

5885-1004 (6889)

NatoAlfista<$100

Mitteldeutscher BC

Invested

$28.93

Value

$29.19

PnL

+$0.26

Record

50%

3947-3930 (7877)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Mitteldeutscher BC

Invested

$27.36

Value

$27.12

PnL

-$0.24

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

Research grade

AvoidMitteldeutscher BC at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Mitteldeutscher BC

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mitteldeutscher BC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.8%

79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.