Consensus PnL $2.4K · win rate 74% (358–128, n=486) · hand-picked wallet · holds 6 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$2.4K
Record
358W / 128L
Win Rate
74.0%
of 486 settled
Batting Avg
51.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#606
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
3,227
Markets
613
Volume
$8.6M
Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 6 on the consensus side (50%)- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $1.2K · now 70¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (73% of 94)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $1.2K · now 71¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (83% of 108)
- Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?No $295 · now 84¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (67% of 9)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $9 · now 3¢ · in at 31¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $9 · now 2¢ · in at 15¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $5 · now 2¢ · in at 21¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
491 settled consensus markets · held side won 80% at an average entry of 79¢- Politics
+6 pts
side won 91% of 86 · avg entry 85¢
ROI +2%
- Tech
+5 pts
side won 94% of 16 · avg entry 88¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 80% of 41 at an average 87¢ entry (−7 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 10%(won 12% of 50)
- 30–50¢: 7%(won 59% of 32)
- 50–70¢: 8%(won 40% of 40)
- 70¢ and up: 75%(won 95% of 369)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.