Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?

14 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold No (74%) · No at 98¢ · $308K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 74%

Total Value

$308.4K

Combined PnL

$11.8K

Smart Money Entry

92.8¢ → 97.7¢

+5% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 19 top traders (74%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$308.1K

Total Shares315,009

Combined PnL+$14.1K

Yes5 traders

Total Value$306.27

Total Shares12,761

Combined PnL$-2.3K

No — 74%Yes — 26%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

74% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 91% · 11

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 85% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952	Noavg 92.7¢	$201.0K	$195.1K	+$9.7K	85% 605-108 (713)
LU LucasMeow	Noavg 94.9¢	$49.6K	$51.5K	+$1.5K	96% 160-7 (167)
NO notprofitabl	Noavg 95¢	$18.5K	$19.1K	+$487.74	—
justdance	Noavg 86.7¢	$13.0K	$13.5K	+$495.47	52% 2726-2552 (5278)
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4	Noavg 96.8¢	$9.7K	$9.7K	-$30.55	54% 785-659 (1444)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 91.9¢	$4.4K	$4.4K	+$246.99	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
PH phdcapital	Noavg 83.5¢	$3.7K	$4.4K	+$631.13	94% 259-17 (276)
AF afdafdafdafdafd	Noavg 89.5¢	$3.7K	$4.0K	+$332.22	73% 196-73 (269)
TR tryingout1	Noavg 86¢	$2.6K	$2.9K	+$348	80% 85-21 (106)
AM amis	Noavg 88.2¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$146.66	88% 249-34 (283)
timebrotime	Noavg 81.8¢	$930.39	$1.1K	+$170.3	67% 893-435 (1328)
AL Albert 1953CTR	Yesavg 22.4¢	$2.4K	$260.38	$-2.2K	50% 1093-1094 (2187)
LA LaarsY	Noavg 96.7¢	$101.14	$102.29	+$0.94	51% 3435-3355 (6790)
LI lissartter<$100	No	$66.9	$66.9	+$14.46	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
DI Dimpled-FoalCTR	Yesavg 11¢	$129.02	$28.15	-$100.87	54% 229-195 (424)
Warren-BuffettCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$7.84	$11.62	+$3.77	65% 862-465 (1327)
OK okcoolstorybroCTR<$100	Yesavg 21.3¢	$41.34	$4.66	-$36.67	74% 422-148 (570)
TO TokorCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$1.48	$1.46	-$0.02	62% 795-490 (1285)
57 57284910<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$1	$1	-$0	100% 23-0 (23)

0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952

Invested

$201,016.86

Value

$195.1K

PnL

+$9.7K

Record

85%

605-108 (713)

LucasMeow

Invested

$49,570.82

Value

$51.5K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

96%

160-7 (167)

notprofitabl

Invested

$18,533.46

Value

$19.1K

PnL

+$487.74

Record

—

justdance

Invested

$12,964.33

Value

$13.5K

PnL

+$495.47

Record

52%

2726-2552 (5278)

x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4

Invested

$9,748.48

Value

$9.7K

PnL

-$30.55

Record

54%

785-659 (1444)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$4,441.62

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$246.99

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

phdcapital

Invested

$3,722.09

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$631.13

Record

94%

259-17 (276)

afdafdafdafdafd

Invested

$3,685.3

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$332.22

Record

73%

196-73 (269)

tryingout1

Invested

$2,580

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$348

Record

80%

85-21 (106)

amis

Invested

$2,026.47

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$146.66

Record

88%

249-34 (283)

timebrotime

Invested

$930.39

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$170.3

Record

67%

893-435 (1328)

Albert 1953CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,433.4

Value

$260.38

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

50%

1093-1094 (2187)

LaarsY

Invested

$101.14

Value

$102.29

PnL

+$0.94

Record

51%

3435-3355 (6790)

lissartter<$100

Invested

$66.9

Value

$66.9

PnL

+$14.46

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

Dimpled-FoalCTR

Yes

Invested

$129.02

Value

$28.15

PnL

-$100.87

Record

54%

229-195 (424)

Warren-BuffettCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.84

Value

$11.62

PnL

+$3.77

Record

65%

862-465 (1327)

okcoolstorybroCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.34

Value

$4.66

PnL

-$36.67

Record

74%

422-148 (570)

TokorCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.48

Value

$1.46

PnL

-$0.02

Record

62%

795-490 (1285)

57284910<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

-$0

Record

100%

23-0 (23)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

14 of 19 top traders (74%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

74% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 91% · 11

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 85% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.7%

97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.