Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 84¢ · $7K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes17¢No83¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$7.4K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

62.9¢ → 83.5¢

+33% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares8,295

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$444.17

Total Shares2,773

Combined PnL-$376.43

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

111h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
tetrase	Noavg 61.9¢	$2.6K	$3.5K	+$908.28	61% 839-544 (1383)
zxdfbdfgngcxv	Noavg 63.4¢	$1.9K	$2.4K	+$491.72	82% 1758-394 (2152)
rabbit007	Noavg 58¢	$380.6	$551.22	+$167.33	53% 355-309 (664)
OK okcoolstorybro	Noavg 77¢	$270.26	$294.83	+$22.81	74% 422-148 (570)
LI lissartterCTR	Yesavg 34¢	$344.19	$253.71	-$90.48	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
Barkshire-HathawayCTR	Yesavg 42.5¢	$424.12	$159.84	-$259.29	64% 1093-623 (1716)
XC xcaiox	Noavg 58¢	$100	$144.83	+$43.97	77% 200-61 (261)
GonTanaka<$100	Noavg 84¢	$90.72	$90.18	-$0.54	57% 173-128 (301)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$17.28	$17.82	+$0.54	38% 20-32 (52)
bernardbulletinCTR<$100	Yesavg 50.5¢	$40.4	$12.8	-$27.2	69% 987-450 (1437)

tetrase

Invested

$2,625.48

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$908.28

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

zxdfbdfgngcxv

Invested

$1,860.66

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$491.72

Record

82%

1758-394 (2152)

rabbit007

Invested

$380.6

Value

$551.22

PnL

+$167.33

Record

53%

355-309 (664)

okcoolstorybro

Invested

$270.26

Value

$294.83

PnL

+$22.81

Record

74%

422-148 (570)

lissartterCTR

Yes

Invested

$344.19

Value

$253.71

PnL

-$90.48

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

Barkshire-HathawayCTR

Yes

Invested

$424.12

Value

$159.84

PnL

-$259.29

Record

64%

1093-623 (1716)

xcaiox

Invested

$100

Value

$144.83

PnL

+$43.97

Record

77%

200-61 (261)

GonTanaka<$100

Invested

$90.72

Value

$90.18

PnL

-$0.54

Record

57%

173-128 (301)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.28

Value

$17.82

PnL

+$0.54

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

bernardbulletinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.4

Value

$12.8

PnL

-$27.2

Record

69%

987-450 (1437)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

111h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.0%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.