Spread: Rams (-17.5)

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Chargers (100%) · Chargers at 82¢ · $96K held · ends Nov 1

Rams19¢Chargers81¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Chargers

Consensus Traders

Chargers 100%

Total Value

$96.4K

Combined PnL

-$578.94

Smart Money Entry

82¢ → 81.5¢

-1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralChargers at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Chargers

8 of 8 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Rams19%

Chargers82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Chargers8 traders

Total Value$96.4K

Total Shares118,275

Combined PnL-$578.94

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Chargers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleChargers 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpChargers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrChargers 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedChargers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Chargers 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Chargersavg 82¢	$42.2K	$41.9K	-$257.1	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
UP UpTheBlues	Chargersavg 82¢	$33.0K	$32.8K	-$201	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
VeryLucky888	Chargersavg 82¢	$12.3K	$12.2K	-$74.61	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
PA para-Vision	Chargersavg 82¢	$8.2K	$8.1K	-$50	56% 219-174 (393)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Chargersavg 82¢	$820	$820	+$5	53% 5696-5031 (10727)
PI PIPIZIN	Chargersavg 82¢	$300	$298.17	-$1.83	51% 428-405 (833)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Chargersavg 82¢	$164	$164	+$1	54% 4943-4171 (9114)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Chargersavg 82¢	$67.24	$66.83	-$0.41	57% 29237-21620 (50857)

HomeRunHazard

Chargers

Invested

$42,164

Value

$41.9K

PnL

-$257.1

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

UpTheBlues

Chargers

Invested

$32,970.15

Value

$32.8K

PnL

-$201

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

VeryLucky888

Chargers

Invested

$12,299.6

Value

$12.2K

PnL

-$74.61

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

para-Vision

Chargers

Invested

$8,200

Value

$8.1K

PnL

-$50

Record

56%

219-174 (393)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Chargers

Invested

$820

Value

$820

PnL

+$5

Record

53%

5696-5031 (10727)

PIPIZIN

Chargers

Invested

$300

Value

$298.17

PnL

-$1.83

Record

51%

428-405 (833)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Chargers

Invested

$164

Value

$164

PnL

+$1

Record

54%

4943-4171 (9114)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Chargers

Invested

$67.24

Value

$66.83

PnL

-$0.41

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

Research grade

NeutralChargers at 82%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Chargers

8 of 8 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Chargers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleChargers 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpChargers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrChargers 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedChargers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Chargers 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Chargers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.