Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Daniel Galan, while the market favors Gonzalo Bueno (64%). 20 of 34 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Costa do Sauipe: Daniel Galan vs Gonzalo Bueno

20 of 34 top Polymarket traders hold Daniel Galan (59%) · Daniel Galan at 37¢ · $47K held · ends Nov 10

Daniel Galan37¢Gonzalo Bueno63¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Daniel Galan

Consensus Traders

Daniel Galan 59%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$47.5K

Combined PnL

-$775.48

Smart Money Entry

55.9¢ → 36.5¢

-35% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

NeutralDaniel Galan at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Daniel Galan

20 of 34 top traders (59%)Underdog side (market favors Gonzalo Bueno 64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Daniel Galan37%

Gonzalo Bueno64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Daniel Galan20 traders

Total Value$28.4K

Total Shares50,685

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Gonzalo Bueno14 traders

Total Value$19.1K

Total Shares32,562

Combined PnL+$904.1

Daniel Galan — 59%Gonzalo Bueno — 41%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Daniel Galan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDaniel Galan 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpDaniel Galan 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGonzalo Bueno 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Gonzalo Bueno 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Daniel Galanavg 56.7¢	$11.9K	$12.2K	+$366.13	53% 59038-51355 (110393)
CA cavvvyCTR	Daniel Galanavg 64.9¢	$9.7K	$9.1K	-$658.15	51% 18-17 (35)
OM omnibus-076daa	Gonzalo Buenoavg 57.4¢	$5.9K	$6.6K	+$700.4	50% 20187-20523 (40710)
0X 0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516	Gonzalo Buenoavg 57¢	$4.3K	$4.4K	+$113.17	51% 130-126 (256)
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239	Gonzalo Buenoavg 57¢	$4.1K	$3.9K	-$146.41	38% 519-831 (1350)
VE VenusianCTR	Daniel Galanavg 45¢	$3.6K	$2.8K	-$758.85	53% 916-813 (1729)
YE yesmate	Gonzalo Buenoavg 57.2¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$105.8	53% 371-334 (705)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Daniel Galanavg 52¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$88.58	50% 512-509 (1021)
tradecraft	Gonzalo Buenoavg 36.2¢	$961.6	$1.1K	+$88.89	51% 6221-5962 (12183)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Daniel Galanavg 54.7¢	$1.4K	$889.86	-$465.9	51% 4504-4380 (8884)
38 38791873984189	Gonzalo Buenoavg 48.7¢	$1.1K	$858.07	+$76.47	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
SH SharkVisionCTR	Daniel Galanavg 43¢	$770.41	$745.3	-$25.11	70% 1414-592 (2006)
NO NotJumpCTR	Daniel Galanavg 45¢	$450	$450	+$0	44% 10222-13273 (23495)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Gonzalo Buenoavg 35.4¢	$215.2	$392.16	+$176.96	52% 6711-6252 (12963)
LI LimousinCTR	Daniel Galanavg 43.9¢	$362.7	$293.27	-$69.44	56% 942-736 (1678)
ER Erick2307	Gonzalo Buenoavg 58¢	$268.26	$284.39	+$16.13	48% 186-204 (390)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Daniel Galanavg 57.7¢	$343.91	$211.69	-$132.22	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
OL olpyCTR	Daniel Galanavg 48.3¢	$195.48	$192.37	-$3.11	73% 438-160 (598)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Daniel Galanavg 44.8¢	$173.17	$120.75	-$20.17	60% 4225-2826 (7051)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Gonzalo Buenoavg 47¢	$117.61	$108.85	-$8.76	50% 2644-2635 (5279)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Daniel Galanavg 59.8¢	$53.89	$56.66	+$2.78	52% 14121-12894 (27015)
└ Daniel Galan leg	Daniel Galanavg 59.8¢	$33.57	$36.22	+$2.64
└ Gonzalo Bueno leg	Gonzalo Buenoavg 35.3¢	$20.31	$20.45	+$0.13
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Daniel Galanavg 40.9¢	$53.23	$53.96	+$0.73	47% 10564-11815 (22379)
poshposhCTR<$100	Daniel Galanavg 39¢	$49.07	$53.22	+$4.16	57% 11866-8957 (20823)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Daniel Galanavg 56¢	$49.83	$50.27	+$0.44	58% 44610-32488 (77098)
SU suntori<$100	Gonzalo Buenoavg 43.2¢	$33.32	$27.8	-$5.52	45% 13648-16581 (30229)

RN1CTR

Daniel Galan

Invested

$11,870.59

Value

$12.2K

PnL

+$366.13

Record

53%

59038-51355 (110393)

cavvvyCTR

Daniel Galan

Invested

$9,733.15

Value

$9.1K

PnL

-$658.15

Record

51%

18-17 (35)

omnibus-076daa

Gonzalo Bueno

Invested

$5,925.7

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$700.4

Record

50%

20187-20523 (40710)

0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516

Gonzalo Bueno

Invested

$4,300.65

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$113.17

Record

51%

130-126 (256)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239

Gonzalo Bueno

Invested

$4,088.38

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$146.41

Record

38%

519-831 (1350)

VenusianCTR

Daniel Galan

Invested

$3,596.34

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$758.85

Record

53%

916-813 (1729)

yesmate

Gonzalo Bueno

Invested

$1,430.8

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$105.8

Record

53%

371-334 (705)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Daniel Galan

Invested

$1,026.73

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$88.58

Record

50%

512-509 (1021)

tradecraft

Gonzalo Bueno

Invested

$961.6

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$88.89

Record

51%

6221-5962 (12183)

6512395314597884CTR

Daniel Galan

Invested

$1,355.75

Value

$889.86

PnL

-$465.9

Record

51%

4504-4380 (8884)

38791873984189

Gonzalo Bueno

Invested

$1,056.52

Value

$858.07

PnL

+$76.47

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

SharkVisionCTR

Daniel Galan

Invested

$770.41

Value

$745.3

PnL

-$25.11

Record

70%

1414-592 (2006)

NotJumpCTR

Daniel Galan

Invested

$450

Value

$450

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

10222-13273 (23495)

CandleHammerDrums

Gonzalo Bueno

Invested

$215.2

Value

$392.16

PnL

+$176.96

Record

52%

6711-6252 (12963)

LimousinCTR

Daniel Galan

Invested

$362.7

Value

$293.27

PnL

-$69.44

Record

56%

942-736 (1678)

Erick2307

Gonzalo Bueno

Invested

$268.26

Value

$284.39

PnL

+$16.13

Record

48%

186-204 (390)

FlaznorpCTR

Daniel Galan

Invested

$343.91

Value

$211.69

PnL

-$132.22

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

olpyCTR

Daniel Galan

Invested

$195.48

Value

$192.37

PnL

-$3.11

Record

73%

438-160 (598)

thestingsnakeCTR

Daniel Galan

Invested

$173.17

Value

$120.75

PnL

-$20.17

Record

60%

4225-2826 (7051)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Gonzalo Bueno

Invested

$117.61

Value

$108.85

PnL

-$8.76

Record

50%

2644-2635 (5279)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Daniel Galan

Invested

$53.89

Value

$56.66

PnL

+$2.78

Record

52%

14121-12894 (27015)

Both legs:

Daniel Galan$33.5759.8¢+$2.64

Gonzalo Bueno$20.3135.3¢+$0.13

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Daniel Galan

Invested

$53.23

Value

$53.96

PnL

+$0.73

Record

47%

10564-11815 (22379)

poshposhCTR<$100

Daniel Galan

Invested

$49.07

Value

$53.22

PnL

+$4.16

Record

57%

11866-8957 (20823)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Daniel Galan

Invested

$49.83

Value

$50.27

PnL

+$0.44

Record

58%

44610-32488 (77098)

suntori<$100

Gonzalo Bueno

Invested

$33.32

Value

$27.8

PnL

-$5.52

Record

45%

13648-16581 (30229)

Research grade

NeutralDaniel Galan at 37%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Daniel Galan

20 of 34 top traders (59%)Underdog side (market favors Gonzalo Bueno 64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Daniel Galan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDaniel Galan 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpDaniel Galan 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGonzalo Bueno 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Gonzalo Bueno 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Daniel Galan wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.7%

36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$158.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

258.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.