Spread: LASK Linz (-2.5)

5 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold ŠK Slovan Bratislava (36%) · ŠK Slovan Bratislava at 69¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 3

LASK Linz32¢ŠK Slovan Bratislava68¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

ŠK Slovan Bratislava

Consensus Traders

ŠK Slovan Bratislava 36%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$30.24

Smart Money Entry

69¢ → 68.5¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralŠK Slovan Bratislava at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

ŠK Slovan Bratislava

5 of 14 top traders (36%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

LASK Linz32%

ŠK Slovan Bratislava69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

ŠK Slovan Bratislava5 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,386

Combined PnL-$11.63

LASK Linz9 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares3,343

Combined PnL-$18.61

ŠK Slovan Bratislava — 36%LASK Linz — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on ŠK Slovan Bratislava. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on ŠK Slovan Bratislava) and the top 1000 (13 on LASK Linz) disagree here.

whaleŠK Slovan Bratislava 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpŠK Slovan Bratislava 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrŠK Slovan Bratislava 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedŠK Slovan Bratislava 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000LASK Linz 69% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	ŠK Slovan Bratislavaavg 69¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$6.94	58% 44610-32488 (77098)
LI LimousinCTR	LASK Linzavg 32¢	$597.96	$587.85	-$10.11	56% 942-736 (1678)
0xheavy888	ŠK Slovan Bratislavaavg 69¢	$483	$479.5	-$3.5	55% 7598-6093 (13691)
FL FlaznorpCTR	LASK Linzavg 30.9¢	$220.87	$218.26	-$2.61	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	LASK Linzavg 30.8¢	$81.85	$81.06	-$0.79	50% 35607-35082 (70689)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	LASK Linzavg 32.1¢	$86.27	$80.7	-$5.57	53% 916-813 (1729)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	ŠK Slovan Bratislavaavg 70.5¢	$77	$75.9	-$1.09	50% 27298-27227 (54525)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	LASK Linzavg 29.8¢	$37.42	$38.28	+$0.86	52% 830-771 (1601)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	LASK Linzavg 30¢	$23.77	$24.13	+$0.36	58% 18597-13721 (32318)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	ŠK Slovan Bratislavaavg 69¢	$13.8	$13.7	-$0.1	52% 8455-7711 (16166)
rayvanmechelen<$100	ŠK Slovan Bratislavaavg 69¢	$10	$10	-$0	74% 2370-822 (3192)
0X 0x952718dF56Ab7955E0A0121a9E47fa8f52B6888b-1787761374187CTR<$100	LASK Linzavg 32¢	$7.84	$7.35	-$0.61	15% 1116-6362 (7478)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	LASK Linzavg 32.1¢	$1.83	$1.71	-$0.12	45% 13648-16581 (30229)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	LASK Linzavg 31¢	$1.55	$1.5	-$0.03	54% 906-787 (1693)

VeryLucky888

ŠK Slovan Bratislava

Invested

$1,094.68

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$6.94

Record

58%

44610-32488 (77098)

LimousinCTR

LASK Linz

Invested

$597.96

Value

$587.85

PnL

-$10.11

Record

56%

942-736 (1678)

0xheavy888

ŠK Slovan Bratislava

Invested

$483

Value

$479.5

PnL

-$3.5

Record

55%

7598-6093 (13691)

FlaznorpCTR

LASK Linz

Invested

$220.87

Value

$218.26

PnL

-$2.61

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

LASK Linz

Invested

$81.85

Value

$81.06

PnL

-$0.79

Record

50%

35607-35082 (70689)

VenusianCTR<$100

LASK Linz

Invested

$86.27

Value

$80.7

PnL

-$5.57

Record

53%

916-813 (1729)

GoalLineGhost<$100

ŠK Slovan Bratislava

Invested

$77

Value

$75.9

PnL

-$1.09

Record

50%

27298-27227 (54525)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

LASK Linz

Invested

$37.42

Value

$38.28

PnL

+$0.86

Record

52%

830-771 (1601)

ghorrockCTR<$100

LASK Linz

Invested

$23.77

Value

$24.13

PnL

+$0.36

Record

58%

18597-13721 (32318)

ameisgoat11<$100

ŠK Slovan Bratislava

Invested

$13.8

Value

$13.7

PnL

-$0.1

Record

52%

8455-7711 (16166)

rayvanmechelen<$100

ŠK Slovan Bratislava

Invested

$10

Value

$10

PnL

-$0

Record

74%

2370-822 (3192)

0x952718dF56Ab7955E0A0121a9E47fa8f52B6888b-1787761374187CTR<$100

LASK Linz

Invested

$7.84

Value

$7.35

PnL

-$0.61

Record

15%

1116-6362 (7478)

suntoriCTR<$100

LASK Linz

Invested

$1.83

Value

$1.71

PnL

-$0.12

Record

45%

13648-16581 (30229)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

LASK Linz

Invested

$1.55

Value

$1.5

PnL

-$0.03

Record

54%

906-787 (1693)

Research grade

NeutralŠK Slovan Bratislava at 69%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

ŠK Slovan Bratislava

5 of 14 top traders (36%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on ŠK Slovan Bratislava. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on ŠK Slovan Bratislava) and the top 1000 (13 on LASK Linz) disagree here.

whaleŠK Slovan Bratislava 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpŠK Slovan Bratislava 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrŠK Slovan Bratislava 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedŠK Slovan Bratislava 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000LASK Linz 69% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that ŠK Slovan Bratislava wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.