Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 88¢ · $8K held · ends Feb 1, 2027

Yes88¢No12¢Ends Mon, Feb 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 71%

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

$655.52

Smart Money Entry

78.1¢ → 87.6¢

+12% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes88%

No12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares8,834

Combined PnL+$784.41

No2 traders

Total Value$262.35

Total Shares1,144

Combined PnL-$128.89

Yes — 71%No — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SH shovelingdigging	Yesavg 79.3¢	$6.2K	$6.3K	+$561.87	60% 314-210 (524)
PMTraderAdam	Yesavg 58.4¢	$350.6	$494.4	+$143.5	77% 830-249 (1079)
Istaroth	Yesavg 86.7¢	$438.56	$410.03	-$17.43	18% 365-1640 (2005)
PaddyAlphaCTR	Noavg 74.6¢	$169.64	$147.26	-$12.93	59% 986-684 (1670)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Noavg 23.8¢	$420	$115.08	-$115.96	53% 6690-5887 (12577)
SH shiifoo	Yesavg 66.5¢	$270.13	$102.4	+$89.62	59% 3430-2345 (5775)
AB ABC12345654321<$100	Yesavg 81.6¢	$35.71	$61.1	+$6.84	50% 1658-1652 (3310)

shovelingdigging

Yes

Invested

$6,230.46

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$561.87

Record

60%

314-210 (524)

PMTraderAdam

Yes

Invested

$350.6

Value

$494.4

PnL

+$143.5

Record

77%

830-249 (1079)

Istaroth

Yes

Invested

$438.56

Value

$410.03

PnL

-$17.43

Record

18%

365-1640 (2005)

PaddyAlphaCTR

Invested

$169.64

Value

$147.26

PnL

-$12.93

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Invested

$420

Value

$115.08

PnL

-$115.96

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

shiifoo

Yes

Invested

$270.13

Value

$102.4

PnL

+$89.62

Record

59%

3430-2345 (5775)

ABC12345654321<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.71

Value

$61.1

PnL

+$6.84

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 88%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.2%

87.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.17

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.