Consensus PnL $97K · win rate 97% (35–1, n=36) · was PM monthly #327 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$96.6K
Record
35W / 1L
Win Rate
97.0%
of 36 settled
Batting Avg
40.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#124
Source
PM monthly #327
Trades
115
Markets
48
Volume
$4.6M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 4 on the consensus side (100%)- Xi Jinping out before 2027?No $36K · now 98¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (95% of 37)
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $23K · now 96¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (88% of 80)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $9.5K · now 95¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (87% of 158)
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $8.8K · now 95¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (80% of 108)
Specialties
37 settled consensus markets · held side won 97% at an average entry of 97¢- Economy
+2 pts
side won 100% of 18 · avg entry 98¢
ROI +4%
- Politics
+4 pts
side won 100% of 11 · avg entry 96¢
ROI +3%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 0%
- 70¢ and up: 100%(won 97% of 37)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.