Consensus PnL $137K · win rate 38% (310–504, n=814) · PM monthly #95 · holds 18 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$136.7K
Record
310W / 504L
Win Rate
38.0%
of 814 settled
Batting Avg
20.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2496
Source
PM monthly #95
Record (90 d)
186/435 · 43%
Trades
5,181
Markets
1,555
Volume
$458.6K
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Top consensus positions
18 in listed consensus markets · 14 of 18 on the consensus side (78%)- Will an Independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026?No $515 · now 92¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (56% of 18)
- Will Fjord win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?No $370 · now 100¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (96% of 27)
- Will the Republican Party win the CO-08 House seat?No $178 · now 95¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (61% of 18)
- Will Podemos win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?Yes $88 · now 0¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- Will Broad Front (FA) win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?Yes $81 · now 0¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?No $51 · now 8¢ · in at 10¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democrats win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Yes $35 · now 0¢with the consensus (80% of 10)
- Will the Democratic Party win the CO-08 House seat?No $17 · now 6¢ · in at 5¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
361 settled consensus markets · held side won 40% at an average entry of 41¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where zerone777's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Mentions — held side won 68% of 47 at an average 70¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI +13%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 56%(won 1% of 202)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 43% of 7)
- 50–70¢: 5%(won 59% of 17)
- 70¢ and up: 37%(won 97% of 135)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.