Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 12 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Fjord win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?

12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $22 held · ends Mar 14, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Mar 14, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$21.84

Combined PnL

-$123.42

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders

Total Value$21.84

Total Shares6,862

Combined PnL-$123.42

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

69h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$30.23	$12.62	-$76.56	47% 1359-1503 (2862)
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$20.76	$5.63	-$18.24	39% 2908-4509 (7417)
FO forgotmydinnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$8.33	$1.23	-$7.43	18% 108-506 (614)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.09	$0.88	-$5.31	32% 3290-7152 (10442)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.07	$0.47	-$2.85	42% 920-1262 (2182)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yes	$0.33	$0.33	-$2	40% 6571-9852 (16423)
DG DG-NOCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$5.56	$0.25	-$5.31	39% 681-1087 (1768)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.21	$0.19	-$1.17	27% 614-1677 (2291)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yes	$0.11	$0.11	-$0.64	47% 10380-11847 (22227)
0X 0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$2.71	$0.06	-$2.64	22% 44-157 (201)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$1.11	$0.05	-$1.06	28% 581-1491 (2072)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0	$0.04	-$0.21	53% 12588-11025 (23613)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.23

Value

$12.62

PnL

-$76.56

Record

47%

1359-1503 (2862)

rainbowliliesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.76

Value

$5.63

PnL

-$18.24

Record

39%

2908-4509 (7417)

forgotmydinnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.33

Value

$1.23

PnL

-$7.43

Record

18%

108-506 (614)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.09

Value

$0.88

PnL

-$5.31

Record

32%

3290-7152 (10442)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.47

PnL

-$2.85

Record

42%

920-1262 (2182)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.33

Value

$0.33

PnL

-$2

Record

40%

6571-9852 (16423)

DG-NOCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.56

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$5.31

Record

39%

681-1087 (1768)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.21

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$1.17

Record

27%

614-1677 (2291)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.11

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$0.64

Record

47%

10380-11847 (22227)

0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.71

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$2.64

Record

22%

44-157 (201)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.11

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$1.06

Record

28%

581-1491 (2072)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.21

Record

53%

12588-11025 (23613)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

69h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.