Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Broad Front (FA) win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 30
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 100%
$1.4K
-$83.62
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 52%
Freshness
Mature
34h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI mildwindow27CTR | Yes | $423.56 | $423.56 | -$25.23 | 47% 8058-9227 (17285) |
VA Vale54holiCTR | Yes | $310.86 | $310.86 | -$18.53 | 27% 218-592 (810) |
LI LikaseentCTR | Yes | $265.01 | $265.01 | -$15.8 | 27% 238-656 (894) |
AL alex20011CTR | Yes | $218.96 | $218.96 | -$13.05 | 42% 3654-5054 (8708) |
KA kaxel78CTR<$100 | Yes | $83.33 | $83.33 | -$4.97 | 28% 329-852 (1181) |
ZE zerone777CTR<$100 | Yes | $81.44 | $81.44 | -$4.85 | 37% 455-781 (1236) |
PO pollo07CTR<$100 | Yes | $20 | $20 | -$1.19 | 30% 369-870 (1239) |
Invested
$423.56
Value
$423.56
PnL
-$25.23
Record
47%
8058-9227 (17285)
Invested
$310.86
Value
$310.86
PnL
-$18.53
Record
27%
218-592 (810)
Invested
$265.01
Value
$265.01
PnL
-$15.8
Record
27%
238-656 (894)
Invested
$218.96
Value
$218.96
PnL
-$13.05
Record
42%
3654-5054 (8708)
Invested
$83.33
Value
$83.33
PnL
-$4.97
Record
28%
329-852 (1181)
Invested
$81.44
Value
$81.44
PnL
-$4.85
Record
37%
455-781 (1236)
Invested
$20
Value
$20
PnL
-$1.19
Record
30%
369-870 (1239)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.