Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas, and lose Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 98¢ · $35K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 43%
$35.4K
$15.0K
98.4¢ → 98.4¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-42 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Mature
37h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
3 consensus flips
38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $9.6K | $24.4K | +$14.8K | 43% 561-738 (1299) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 98.4¢ | $9.8K | $9.8K | -$10 | 56% 15372-11923 (27295) |
 Tenebrus7 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $492 | $491.75 | -$0.25 | 73% 2953-1072 (4025) |
 The-JokerCTR | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $346.25 | $360.57 | +$25.26 | 68% 1507-701 (2208) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $122 | $198 | +$26.83 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $67.8 | $67.59 | -$0.21 | 76% 11357-3525 (14882) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 1¢ | $349.88 | $49.99 | +$94.56 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
Invested
$9,596.14
Value
$24.4K
PnL
+$14.8K
Record
43%
561-738 (1299)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$9,840
Value
$9.8K
PnL
-$10
Record
56%
15372-11923 (27295)
Tenebrus7Invested
$492
Value
$491.75
PnL
-$0.25
Record
73%
2953-1072 (4025)
The-JokerCTRInvested
$346.25
Value
$360.57
PnL
+$25.26
Record
68%
1507-701 (2208)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$122
Value
$198
PnL
+$26.83
Record
41%
1986-2802 (4788)
Invested
$67.8
Value
$67.59
PnL
-$0.21
Record
76%
11357-3525 (14882)
Invested
$349.88
Value
$49.99
PnL
+$94.56
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.