Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Ohio?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (86%) · Yes at 0.8¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 86%
$11.2K
$1.2K
0.7¢ → 0.8¢
+13% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Mature
42h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $9.6K | $10.7K | +$1.2K | 43% 561-738 (1299) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $206.25 | $182 | -$57.01 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $318.54 | $149.71 | +$49.7 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
 themagicofcinemaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $76.96 | $68.41 | -$12.83 | 66% 431-218 (649) |
 RememberAmalekCTR<$100 | Yes | $20 | $20 | -$1.07 | 56% 973-770 (1743) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $4.97 | $4.96 | -$0.01 | 76% 11358-3527 (14885) |
SB sbimbgCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $3.82 | $1.02 | -$2.99 | 70% 3189-1369 (4558) |
Invested
$9,562.57
Value
$10.7K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
43%
561-738 (1299)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$206.25
Value
$182
PnL
-$57.01
Record
41%
1986-2802 (4788)
Invested
$318.54
Value
$149.71
PnL
+$49.7
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
themagicofcinemaCTR<$100Invested
$76.96
Value
$68.41
PnL
-$12.83
Record
66%
431-218 (649)
RememberAmalekCTR<$100Invested
$20
Value
$20
PnL
-$1.07
Record
56%
973-770 (1743)
Invested
$4.97
Value
$4.96
PnL
-$0.01
Record
76%
11358-3527 (14885)
Invested
$3.82
Value
$1.02
PnL
-$2.99
Record
70%
3189-1369 (4558)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.