Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 11 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Republicans win Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Iowa, Kansas, and Texas?

11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$-8.0K

Smart Money Entry

0.6¢ → 0.1¢

-76% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares1,587,006

Combined PnL$-8.0K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

55h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$9.6K	$2.1K	$-7.4K	44% 577-748 (1325)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 0.1¢	$135.64	$117.26	+$18.38	50% 1220-1232 (2452)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$83.1	$22.5	-$60.6	56% 15515-12123 (27638)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$34.12	$10.15	-$23.97	25% 181-537 (718)
AN ancianoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$38.9	$7.47	-$31.43	52% 1154-1067 (2221)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$29.41	$5.65	-$23.76	17% 1023-4939 (5962)
CU CustomTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$14.57	$4.96	-$9.61	15% 118-669 (787)
LolakisCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.49	$2.49	-$12.4	61% 670-428 (1098)
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$2.37	$0.45	-$1.91	24% 666-2082 (2748)
PL plainfolderCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.76	$0.15	-$0.62	32% 2903-6253 (9156)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.17	$0.03	-$480.13	35% 104-196 (300)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$9,562.57

Value

$2.1K

PnL

$-7.4K

Record

44%

577-748 (1325)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$135.64

Value

$117.26

PnL

+$18.38

Record

50%

1220-1232 (2452)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$83.1

Value

$22.5

PnL

-$60.6

Record

56%

15515-12123 (27638)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.12

Value

$10.15

PnL

-$23.97

Record

25%

181-537 (718)

ancianoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.9

Value

$7.47

PnL

-$31.43

Record

52%

1154-1067 (2221)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.41

Value

$5.65

PnL

-$23.76

Record

17%

1023-4939 (5962)

CustomTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.57

Value

$4.96

PnL

-$9.61

Record

15%

118-669 (787)

LolakisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.49

Value

$2.49

PnL

-$12.4

Record

61%

670-428 (1098)

SPLPBCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.37

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$1.91

Record

24%

666-2082 (2748)

plainfolderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.76

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$0.62

Record

32%

2903-6253 (9156)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.17

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$480.13

Record

35%

104-196 (300)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

55h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8264.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

8364.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.