Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Ohio, and Texas?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 3

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 88%

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

$-5.2K

Smart Money Entry

0.7¢ → 0.4¢

-46% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares1,587,989

Combined PnL$-5.2K

No1 trader

Total Value$553.06

Total Shares555

Combined PnL+$0.83

Yes — 88%No — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

51h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$9.6K	$5.0K	$-4.5K	43% 572-748 (1320)
BU BunCaCham	Noavg 99.5¢	$552.23	$553.06	+$0.83	97% 2587-69 (2656)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 0.5¢	$653.45	$512.57	-$75.11	53% 1175-1055 (2230)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$90.18	$40.98	-$49.2	45% 812-1011 (1823)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$78.12	$35	-$43.12	56% 15377-11924 (27301)
FA FancyiCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$20	$17.5	-$2.5	68% 56-26 (82)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.78	$0.35	-$504.49	— 0-19 (19)
themagicofcinemaCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.06	$0.05	-$0.02	67% 431-217 (648)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$9,562.57

Value

$5.0K

PnL

$-4.5K

Record

43%

572-748 (1320)

BunCaCham

Invested

$552.23

Value

$553.06

PnL

+$0.83

Record

97%

2587-69 (2656)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$653.45

Value

$512.57

PnL

-$75.11

Record

53%

1175-1055 (2230)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$90.18

Value

$40.98

PnL

-$49.2

Record

45%

812-1011 (1823)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$78.12

Value

$35

PnL

-$43.12

Record

56%

15377-11924 (27301)

FancyiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20

Value

$17.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

68%

56-26 (82)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.78

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$504.49

Record

—

0-19 (19)

themagicofcinemaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.02

Record

67%

431-217 (648)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

51h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7026.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

7126.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.