Consensus PnL -$56K · win rate 0% (0–2, n=2) · hand-picked wallet · holds 23 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-56.2K
Record
0W / 2L
Win Rate
0.0%
of 2 settled
Batting Avg
69.2%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2303
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
5,428
Markets
128
Volume
$951.3K
Top consensus positions
23 in listed consensus markets · 19 of 23 on the consensus side (83%)- Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Yes $8.5K · now 74¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (69% of 48)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $6.9K · now 72¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (80% of 86)
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $5.3K · now 73¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (75% of 80)
- Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Yes $1.4K · now 53¢ · in at 38¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $468 · now 71¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (82% of 110)
- Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $243 · now 38¢ · in at 38¢with the consensus (78% of 39)
- Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $130 · now 1¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (93% of 15)
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $66 · now 16¢ · in at 16¢with the consensus (82% of 34)
Specialties
68 settled consensus markets · held side won 82% at an average entry of 73¢- Geopolitics
+10 pts
side won 86% of 50 · avg entry 76¢
ROI +7%
- Politics
+4 pts
side won 67% of 15 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +12%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 10%(won 14% of 7)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 50% of 4)
- 50–70¢: 15%(won 70% of 10)
- 70¢ and up: 69%(won 98% of 47)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.