Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Republicans win Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Kansas, and Texas?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$-8.0K

Smart Money Entry

0.6¢ → 0.1¢

-76% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares1,600,722

Combined PnL$-8.0K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

51h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$9.5K	$2.2K	$-7.4K	44% 577-748 (1325)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 0.2¢	$142.77	$122.34	-$20.43	50% 1220-1232 (2452)
AN ancianoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$38.9	$7.47	-$31.43	52% 1154-1067 (2221)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$25.59	$4.91	-$20.67	17% 1023-4939 (5962)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$19.5	$3.78	-$15.71	45% 2314-2839 (5153)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$14.4	$2.76	-$11.63	25% 181-537 (718)
CU CustomTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$12.91	$2.48	-$10.43	15% 118-669 (787)
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$2.37	$0.45	-$1.91	24% 666-2082 (2748)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.78	$0.15	-$508.12	35% 104-196 (300)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$9,547.76

Value

$2.2K

PnL

$-7.4K

Record

44%

577-748 (1325)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$142.77

Value

$122.34

PnL

-$20.43

Record

50%

1220-1232 (2452)

ancianoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.9

Value

$7.47

PnL

-$31.43

Record

52%

1154-1067 (2221)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.59

Value

$4.91

PnL

-$20.67

Record

17%

1023-4939 (5962)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.5

Value

$3.78

PnL

-$15.71

Record

45%

2314-2839 (5153)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.4

Value

$2.76

PnL

-$11.63

Record

25%

181-537 (718)

CustomTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.91

Value

$2.48

PnL

-$10.43

Record

15%

118-669 (787)

SPLPBCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.37

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$1.91

Record

24%

666-2082 (2748)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.78

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$508.12

Record

35%

104-196 (300)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

51h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8264.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

8364.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.