Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Republicans win Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 3

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$5.3K

Combined PnL

$-4.5K

Smart Money Entry

0.6¢ → 0.4¢

-46% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares1,521,634

Combined PnL$-4.5K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

54h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$9.6K	$5.0K	$-4.5K	44% 577-748 (1325)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 0.3¢	$341.99	$242.17	+$106.18	50% 1220-1232 (2452)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$78.12	$35	-$43.12	56% 15515-12123 (27638)
AN ancianoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$38.9	$17.43	-$21.47	52% 1154-1067 (2221)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$18.83	$8.54	-$10.29	45% 2314-2839 (5153)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$8.81	$3.95	-$4.86	17% 1023-4939 (5962)
CU CustomTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$3.86	$1.73	-$2.13	15% 118-669 (787)
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$2.37	$1.06	-$1.31	24% 666-2082 (2748)
PL plainfolderCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.59	$0.26	-$0.32	32% 2903-6253 (9156)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$9,562.57

Value

$5.0K

PnL

$-4.5K

Record

44%

577-748 (1325)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$341.99

Value

$242.17

PnL

+$106.18

Record

50%

1220-1232 (2452)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$78.12

Value

$35

PnL

-$43.12

Record

56%

15515-12123 (27638)

ancianoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.9

Value

$17.43

PnL

-$21.47

Record

52%

1154-1067 (2221)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.83

Value

$8.54

PnL

-$10.29

Record

45%

2314-2839 (5153)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.81

Value

$3.95

PnL

-$4.86

Record

17%

1023-4939 (5962)

CustomTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.86

Value

$1.73

PnL

-$2.13

Record

15%

118-669 (787)

SPLPBCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.37

Value

$1.06

PnL

-$1.31

Record

24%

666-2082 (2748)

plainfolderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.59

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$0.32

Record

32%

2903-6253 (9156)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

54h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7026.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

7126.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.