Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (59%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Al Ahli Saudi FC win on 2026-11-02?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 42¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 2

Yes42¢No58¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 71%

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

$48.39

Smart Money Entry

47.2¢ → 41.5¢

-12% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes42%

No59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares5,664

Combined PnL+$135.8

Yes5 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares7,515

Combined PnL-$87.42

No — 29%Yes — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 51.6¢	$2.9K	$3.0K	+$134.18	50% 19465-19831 (39296)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Yesavg 49¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$79.96	53% 5696-5032 (10728)
0X 0xD67942cD1c1AF4287F80Fe5F11A01DB65Cf491A0-1767718931081CTR	Yesavg 44¢	$888.06	$878.2	-$9.86	50% 222-219 (441)
poshposhCTR	Yesavg 46.1¢	$488.03	$497.56	+$9.53	58% 10691-7671 (18362)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Yesavg 47.4¢	$123.79	$122.67	-$1.12	57% 29247-21632 (50879)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 49¢	$147	$96.03	-$6	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 56¢	$36.85	$38.47	+$1.62	53% 5677-5082 (10759)

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$2,888.71

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$134.18

Record

50%

19465-19831 (39296)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,959.04

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$79.96

Record

53%

5696-5032 (10728)

0xD67942cD1c1AF4287F80Fe5F11A01DB65Cf491A0-1767718931081CTR

Yes

Invested

$888.06

Value

$878.2

PnL

-$9.86

Record

50%

222-219 (441)

poshposhCTR

Yes

Invested

$488.03

Value

$497.56

PnL

+$9.53

Record

58%

10691-7671 (18362)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Yes

Invested

$123.79

Value

$122.67

PnL

-$1.12

Record

57%

29247-21632 (50879)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$147

Value

$96.03

PnL

-$6

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$36.85

Value

$38.47

PnL

+$1.62

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 42%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.