Andy Burnham out as UK PM by December 31?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $13K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$12.7K
$444.52
93.4¢ → 96.9¢
+4% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Late
649h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 archaic | Noavg 93.5¢ | $5.8K | $6.0K | +$206.29 | 85% 1906-339 (2245) |
 Donny.T | Noavg 93.1¢ | $3.8K | $3.9K | +$154.96 | 72% 484-187 (671) |
HI hideo | Noavg 93.2¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$53.25 | 76% 253-81 (334) |
TH thoodr | Noavg 95.4¢ | $527.38 | $534.4 | +$4.53 | 96% 631-24 (655) |
ME melonmanm | Noavg 93¢ | $465 | $483.5 | +$19.25 | 65% 527-282 (809) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 96.6¢ | $202.48 | $202.67 | +$0.2 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
 wish- | Noavg 92.8¢ | $139.23 | $145.05 | +$6.05 | 79% 1176-319 (1495) |
archaicInvested
$5,757.52
Value
$6.0K
PnL
+$206.29
Record
85%
1906-339 (2245)
Donny.TInvested
$3,800.49
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$154.96
Record
72%
484-187 (671)
Invested
$1,398
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$53.25
Record
76%
253-81 (334)
Invested
$527.38
Value
$534.4
PnL
+$4.53
Record
96%
631-24 (655)
Invested
$465
Value
$483.5
PnL
+$19.25
Record
65%
527-282 (809)
Invested
$202.48
Value
$202.67
PnL
+$0.2
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
wish-Invested
$139.23
Value
$145.05
PnL
+$6.05
Record
79%
1176-319 (1495)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.