Consensus PnL $120K · win rate 79% (239–62, n=301) · was PM monthly #920 · holds 9 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$119.9K
Record
239W / 62L
Win Rate
79.0%
of 301 settled
Batting Avg
47.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#465
Source
PM monthly #920 + pinned
Trades
8,630
Markets
395
Volume
$4.0M
Top consensus positions
9 in listed consensus markets · 8 of 9 on the consensus side (89%)- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $92K · now 95¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (79% of 106)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $87K · now 95¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (86% of 158)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $17K · now 72¢ · in at 53¢with the consensus (80% of 86)
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo $15K · now 96¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (72% of 72)
- Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $9.7K · now 94¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (42% of 31)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $5.9K · now 71¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (82% of 108)
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseYes $2.9K · now 23¢ · in at 40¢against the consensus (No)
- Andy Burnham out as UK PM by December 31?No $1.5K · now 97¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
Specialties
341 settled consensus markets · held side won 84% at an average entry of 83¢- Politics
+9 pts
side won 94% of 48 · avg entry 85¢
ROI +4%
- Economy
+6 pts
side won 94% of 51 · avg entry 88¢
ROI +3%
- Crypto
+8 pts
side won 100% of 18 · avg entry 92¢
ROI +5%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 84% of 116 at an average 86¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 8% of 12)
- 30–50¢: 4%(won 43% of 14)
- 50–70¢: 7%(won 52% of 25)
- 70¢ and up: 85%(won 92% of 290)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.