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5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 90¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$1.9K
-$382.55
62.8¢ → 90¢
+43% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Late
1975h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
32 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xC14E1840aaAA56e12409585AD2c2a74c161339a5-1723944811003 | Noavg 59¢ | $630.48 | $960.95 | +$330.48 | 61% 31-20 (51) |
 Valen9 | Noavg 64¢ | $320 | $450 | +$130 | 60% 407-274 (681) |
 tetrase | Noavg 87¢ | $158.47 | $163.94 | +$5.46 | 61% 839-544 (1383) |
 DonaldinhoTrumpitoCTR | Yesavg 65.5¢ | $1.0K | $154.85 | -$859.3 | 67% 506-251 (757) |
 siick<$100 | Noavg 56.9¢ | $55.55 | $87.8 | +$32.24 | 57% 768-580 (1348) |
 paddaa<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $20.61 | $36.37 | +$15.76 | 56% 836-645 (1481) |
 cookiejarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 51.3¢ | $46.2 | $9 | -$37.2 | 69% 178-80 (258) |
Invested
$630.48
Value
$960.95
PnL
+$330.48
Record
61%
31-20 (51)
Valen9Invested
$320
Value
$450
PnL
+$130
Record
60%
407-274 (681)
tetraseInvested
$158.47
Value
$163.94
PnL
+$5.46
Record
61%
839-544 (1383)
DonaldinhoTrumpitoCTRInvested
$1,014.15
Value
$154.85
PnL
-$859.3
Record
67%
506-251 (757)
siick<$100Invested
$55.55
Value
$87.8
PnL
+$32.24
Record
57%
768-580 (1348)
paddaa<$100Invested
$20.61
Value
$36.37
PnL
+$15.76
Record
56%
836-645 (1481)
cookiejarCTR<$100Invested
$46.2
Value
$9
PnL
-$37.2
Record
69%
178-80 (258)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.