Consensus PnL -$199K · win rate 66% (333–172, n=505) · was PM monthly #695 · holds 7 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-198.6K
Record
333W / 172L
Win Rate
66.0%
of 505 settled
Batting Avg
65.3%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#889
Source
PM monthly #695 + pinned
Trades
28,977
Markets
797
Volume
$32.0M
Top consensus positions
7 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 7 on the consensus side (71%)- Will Ra'am win 8 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Yes $20K · now 99¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (89% of 9)
- Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes $18K · now 74¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (68% of 45)
- Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?No $8.3K · now 73¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (62% of 42)
- Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $5.2K · now 63¢ · in at 65¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?No $5.1K · now 96¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (71% of 21)
- Will Ra'am win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Yes $240 · now 2¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (78% of 9)
- Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?Yes $155 · now 10¢ · in at 65¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
613 settled consensus markets · held side won 76% at an average entry of 72¢- Mentions
+13 pts
side won 93% of 76 · avg entry 81¢
ROI +12%
- Geopolitics
+4 pts
side won 95% of 91 · avg entry 90¢
ROI +2%
- Tennis
+7 pts
side won 67% of 72 · avg entry 59¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Politics — held side won 77% of 31 at an average 82¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI +5%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 14%(won 7% of 87)
- 30–50¢: 8%(won 35% of 48)
- 50–70¢: 12%(won 66% of 76)
- 70¢ and up: 66%(won 98% of 402)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.