Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 98¢ · $16K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$16.5K
$268.16
96.6¢ → 98.4¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-17 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Late
5027h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL Alegrandebig | Noavg 97.4¢ | $14.7K | $14.5K | +$118.65 | 94% 2542-150 (2692) |
LA lava-lava | Noavg 90¢ | $902.37 | $984.63 | +$82.26 | 43% 605-790 (1395) |
 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | Noavg 91.5¢ | $915 | $981.5 | +$67 | 89% 2372-295 (2667) |
 tomatosauce2<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $25.92 | $27.06 | +$1.16 | 81% 1207-283 (1490) |
 bernardbulletin<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $9.83 | $9.82 | -$0.01 | 70% 1197-503 (1700) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $9.71 | $8.81 | -$0.9 | 33% 20011-40834 (60845) |
Invested
$14,664.62
Value
$14.5K
PnL
+$118.65
Record
94%
2542-150 (2692)
Invested
$902.37
Value
$984.63
PnL
+$82.26
Record
43%
605-790 (1395)
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04Invested
$915
Value
$981.5
PnL
+$67
Record
89%
2372-295 (2667)
tomatosauce2<$100Invested
$25.92
Value
$27.06
PnL
+$1.16
Record
81%
1207-283 (1490)
bernardbulletin<$100Invested
$9.83
Value
$9.82
PnL
-$0.01
Record
70%
1197-503 (1700)
Invested
$9.71
Value
$8.81
PnL
-$0.9
Record
33%
20011-40834 (60845)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.