Will CA Central Córdoba win on 2026-11-08?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 62¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 8

Yes39¢No61¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$64.01

Smart Money Entry

72¢ → 61.5¢

-15% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes39%

No62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares3,882

Combined PnL-$324.09

Yes3 traders

Total Value$525

Total Shares1,496

Combined PnL+$260.08

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 65¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$50.4	53% 70213-61793 (132006)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 82¢	$916.89	$698.47	-$218.41	51% 47280-44570 (91850)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 16.2¢	$224.65	$486.11	+$261.46	50% 32573-32704 (65277)
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 83¢	$277.43	$208.91	-$68.52	50% 23482-23489 (46971)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 83¢	$82.11	$81.74	-$0.38	50% 27958-27406 (55364)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$39	$37.5	-$1.5	47% 8642-9780 (18422)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 86¢	$22.82	$36.44	+$13.62	53% 15510-13744 (29254)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$1.28	$1.39	+$0.11	57% 22242-16601 (38843)

RN1

Invested

$1,511.28

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$50.4

Record

53%

70213-61793 (132006)

Flaznorp

Invested

$916.89

Value

$698.47

PnL

-$218.41

Record

51%

47280-44570 (91850)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$224.65

Value

$486.11

PnL

+$261.46

Record

50%

32573-32704 (65277)

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$277.43

Value

$208.91

PnL

-$68.52

Record

50%

23482-23489 (46971)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$82.11

Value

$81.74

PnL

-$0.38

Record

50%

27958-27406 (55364)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39

Value

$37.5

PnL

-$1.5

Record

47%

8642-9780 (18422)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$22.82

Value

$36.44

PnL

+$13.62

Record

53%

15510-13744 (29254)

GC-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.28

Value

$1.39

PnL

+$0.11

Record

57%

22242-16601 (38843)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.