Consensus PnL $1.6M · win rate 65% (1256–669, n=1925) · was PM monthly #811 · holds 20 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$1.6M
Record
1256W / 669L
Win Rate
65.0%
of 1925 settled
Batting Avg
58.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#922
Source
PM monthly #811
Trades
56,481
Markets
27,806
Volume
$89.0M
Top consensus positions
20 in listed consensus markets · 16 of 20 on the consensus side (80%)- Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification: Nuno Borges vs Alex MolcanAlex Molcan $4.5K · now 100¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (54% of 24)
- Swiss Indoors Basel: Jiri Lehecka vs Valentin VacherotJiri Lehecka $2.5K · now 91¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (65% of 27)
- Courmayeur: Noma Noha Akugue vs Alina CharaevaAlina Charaeva $1.2K · now 78¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (80% of 11)
- Taranto: Matteo Sciahbasi vs Arvid NordquistArvid Nordquist $934 · now 75¢ · in at 81¢against the consensus (Matteo Sciahbasi)
- Will Torino FC win on 2026-11-01?No $777 · now 94¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (88% of 19)
- Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-11-01?No $453 · now 87¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (75% of 30)
- Counter-Strike: Acend vs FOKUS (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #12 PlayoffsFOKUS $370 · now 46¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (75% of 5)
- Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-10-10?No $333 · now 69¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (35% of 21)
Specialties
1,600 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 75¢- MLB
+30 pts
side won 96% of 91 · avg entry 66¢
ROI +17%
- Soccer
+23 pts
side won 100% of 1318 · avg entry 77¢
ROI +9%
- Tennis
+19 pts
side won 100% of 75 · avg entry 81¢
ROI +16%
Weakest: Entertainment — held side won 50% of 10 at an average 63¢ entry (−13 pts against the price), ROI −3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 64% of 69)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 91% of 102)
- 50–70¢: 19%(won 98% of 309)
- 70¢ and up: 70%(won 100% of 1120)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.