Costa do Sauipe: Facundo Acosta vs Filip Misolic

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Facundo Acosta (25%) · Facundo Acosta at 70¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 12

Facundo Acosta70¢Filip Misolic30¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Facundo Acosta

Consensus Traders

Facundo Acosta 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

-$114.18

Smart Money Entry

67.8¢ → 69.5¢

+3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralFacundo Acosta at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Facundo Acosta

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Facundo Acosta70%

Filip Misolic31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Facundo Acosta2 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares7,749

Combined PnL-$62.12

Filip Misolic6 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,836

Combined PnL-$52.06

Facundo Acosta — 25%Filip Misolic — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Facundo Acosta. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFacundo Acosta 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrFilip Misolic 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedFilip Misolic 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Filip Misolic 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816	Facundo Acostaavg 67.9¢	$5.2K	$5.1K	-$65.42	50% 540-535 (1075)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Filip Misolicavg 33¢	$356.56	$345.75	-$10.8	61% 14344-9270 (23614)
VeryLucky888CTR	Filip Misolicavg 33.3¢	$350	$308.09	-$14.95	58% 46650-33619 (80269)
VE VenusianCTR	Filip Misolicavg 34.1¢	$262.95	$246.72	-$16.23	51% 1367-1324 (2691)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Filip Misolicavg 33¢	$231.81	$224.93	-$6.88	51% 25691-24411 (50102)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Filip Misolicavg 38.8¢	$128.97	$113.8	-$15.17	50% 21143-21403 (42546)
└ Filip Misolic leg	Filip Misolicavg 38.8¢	$82.02	$67.61	-$14.41
└ Facundo Acosta leg	Facundo Acostaavg 68.1¢	$46.95	$46.19	-$0.76
SE sentrioCTR	Filip Misolicavg 33¢	$101.99	$99.1	-$2.89	50% 25799-25489 (51288)
38 38791873984189<$100	Facundo Acostaavg 64¢	$70.4	$73.7	+$3.3	48% 61013-65836 (126849)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Filip Misolicavg 33¢	$9.9	$9.6	-$0.3	54% 2569-2229 (4798)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816

Facundo Acosta

Invested

$5,183.62

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$65.42

Record

50%

540-535 (1075)

LilybaeumCTR

Filip Misolic

Invested

$356.56

Value

$345.75

PnL

-$10.8

Record

61%

14344-9270 (23614)

VeryLucky888CTR

Filip Misolic

Invested

$350

Value

$308.09

PnL

-$14.95

Record

58%

46650-33619 (80269)

VenusianCTR

Filip Misolic

Invested

$262.95

Value

$246.72

PnL

-$16.23

Record

51%

1367-1324 (2691)

FlaznorpCTR

Filip Misolic

Invested

$231.81

Value

$224.93

PnL

-$6.88

Record

51%

25691-24411 (50102)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Filip Misolic

Invested

$128.97

Value

$113.8

PnL

-$15.17

Record

50%

21143-21403 (42546)

Both legs:

Filip Misolic$82.0238.8¢-$14.41

Facundo Acosta$46.9568.1¢-$0.76

sentrioCTR

Filip Misolic

Invested

$101.99

Value

$99.1

PnL

-$2.89

Record

50%

25799-25489 (51288)

38791873984189<$100

Facundo Acosta

Invested

$70.4

Value

$73.7

PnL

+$3.3

Record

48%

61013-65836 (126849)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Filip Misolic

Invested

$9.9

Value

$9.6

PnL

-$0.3

Record

54%

2569-2229 (4798)

Research grade

NeutralFacundo Acosta at 70%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Facundo Acosta

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Facundo Acosta. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFacundo Acosta 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrFilip Misolic 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedFilip Misolic 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Filip Misolic 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Facundo Acosta wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.