BNP Paribas Nordic Open (Doubles): Pavlasek/Rikl vs Arends/Johnson

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Pavlasek/Rikl (50%) · Pavlasek/Rikl at 95¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 19

Pavlasek/Rikl95¢Arends/Johnson5¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Pavlasek/Rikl

Consensus Traders

Pavlasek/Rikl 50%

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

-$928.14

Smart Money Entry

76.5¢ → 95¢

+24% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralPavlasek/Rikl at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pavlasek/Rikl

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Pavlasek/Rikl95%

Arends/Johnson5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pavlasek/Rikl4 traders

Total Value$8.2K

Total Shares9,581

Combined PnL-$688.83

Arends/Johnson4 traders

Total Value$110.17

Total Shares1,758

Combined PnL-$239.31

Pavlasek/Rikl — 50%Arends/Johnson — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Pavlasek/Rikl. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPavlasek/Rikl 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Arends/Johnson 75% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Pavlasek/Riklavg 87.3¢	$4.9K	$4.1K	-$695.65	51% 1822-1783 (3605)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Pavlasek/Riklavg 76.2¢	$1.6K	$1.9K	+$257.5	53% 1791-1599 (3390)
GL glennyorkshire	Pavlasek/Riklavg 63¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$222.22	49% 45-47 (92)
SE sentrio	Pavlasek/Riklavg 74.2¢	$468.93	$440.46	-$28.47	37% 340-569 (909)
CI cigarettesCTR	Arends/Johnsonavg 23.2¢	$295.33	$63.56	-$231.78	53% 5667-5090 (10757)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Arends/Johnsonavg 10¢	$45.3	$43.03	-$2.26	12% 21-155 (176)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Arends/Johnsonavg 33.6¢	$7.73	$2.18	-$5.54	48% 1299-1404 (2703)
US User7429CTR<$100	Arends/Johnsonavg 10¢	$1.12	$1.4	+$0.28	23% 104-347 (451)

Flaznorp

Pavlasek/Rikl

Invested

$4,896.05

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$695.65

Record

51%

1822-1783 (3605)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Pavlasek/Rikl

Invested

$1,621.93

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$257.5

Record

53%

1791-1599 (3390)

glennyorkshire

Pavlasek/Rikl

Invested

$1,999.99

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$222.22

Record

49%

45-47 (92)

sentrio

Pavlasek/Rikl

Invested

$468.93

Value

$440.46

PnL

-$28.47

Record

37%

340-569 (909)

cigarettesCTR

Arends/Johnson

Invested

$295.33

Value

$63.56

PnL

-$231.78

Record

53%

5667-5090 (10757)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Arends/Johnson

Invested

$45.3

Value

$43.03

PnL

-$2.26

Record

12%

21-155 (176)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Arends/Johnson

Invested

$7.73

Value

$2.18

PnL

-$5.54

Record

48%

1299-1404 (2703)

User7429CTR<$100

Arends/Johnson

Invested

$1.12

Value

$1.4

PnL

+$0.28

Record

23%

104-347 (451)

Research grade

NeutralPavlasek/Rikl at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Pavlasek/Rikl

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Pavlasek/Rikl. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPavlasek/Rikl 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Arends/Johnson 75% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pavlasek/Rikl wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.2%

95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.