Lima: Elmer Moeller vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Elmer Moeller (75%) · Elmer Moeller at 76¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 16

Elmer Moeller76¢Genaro Alberto Olivieri24¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Elmer Moeller

Consensus Traders

Elmer Moeller 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.6K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

64.4¢ → 75.5¢

+17% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralElmer Moeller at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Elmer Moeller

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Elmer Moeller76%

Genaro Alberto Olivieri25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Elmer Moeller6 traders

Total Value$21.2K

Total Shares30,755

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Genaro Alberto Olivieri2 traders

Total Value$50.47

Total Shares163

Combined PnL+$0.6

Elmer Moeller — 75%Genaro Alberto Olivieri — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Elmer Moeller. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleElmer Moeller 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpElmer Moeller 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrElmer Moeller 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedElmer Moeller 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Elmer Moeller 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Elmer Moelleravg 64.5¢	$9.0K	$9.7K	+$630.13	54% 1631-1394 (3025)
RN1	Elmer Moelleravg 64.5¢	$6.6K	$7.1K	+$460.3	58% 3762-2719 (6481)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Elmer Moelleravg 64¢	$4.0K	$4.3K	+$314.77	51% 3674-3501 (7175)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Elmer Moelleravg 65¢	$252.1	$265.93	+$13.83	50% 1414-1418 (2832)
└ Elmer Moeller leg	Elmer Moelleravg 65¢	$192.4	$204.24	+$11.84
└ Genaro Alberto Olivieri leg	Genaro Alberto Olivieriavg 30¢	$59.7	$61.69	+$1.99
BA babybells	Elmer Moelleravg 62.6¢	$113.39	$124.89	+$11.5	18% 84-374 (458)
0xheavy888<$100	Elmer Moelleravg 67¢	$40.61	$38.79	-$1.82	55% 111-90 (201)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Genaro Alberto Olivieriavg 29¢	$24.3	$25.98	+$1.68	49% 66-68 (134)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Genaro Alberto Olivieriavg 32.4¢	$25.57	$24.49	-$1.08	53% 5388-4864 (10252)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Elmer Moelleravg 67¢	$4.69	$5.01	+$0.31	15% 84-464 (548)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Elmer Moeller

Invested

$9,031.84

Value

$9.7K

PnL

+$630.13

Record

54%

1631-1394 (3025)

RN1

Elmer Moeller

Invested

$6,600.97

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$460.3

Record

58%

3762-2719 (6481)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Elmer Moeller

Invested

$4,029.1

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$314.77

Record

51%

3674-3501 (7175)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Elmer Moeller

Invested

$252.1

Value

$265.93

PnL

+$13.83

Record

50%

1414-1418 (2832)

Both legs:

Elmer Moeller$192.465¢+$11.84

Genaro Alberto Olivieri$59.730¢+$1.99

babybells

Elmer Moeller

Invested

$113.39

Value

$124.89

PnL

+$11.5

Record

18%

84-374 (458)

0xheavy888<$100

Elmer Moeller

Invested

$40.61

Value

$38.79

PnL

-$1.82

Record

55%

111-90 (201)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Invested

$24.3

Value

$25.98

PnL

+$1.68

Record

49%

66-68 (134)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Invested

$25.57

Value

$24.49

PnL

-$1.08

Record

53%

5388-4864 (10252)

BillBenter2026<$100

Elmer Moeller

Invested

$4.69

Value

$5.01

PnL

+$0.31

Record

15%

84-464 (548)

Research grade

NeutralElmer Moeller at 76%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Elmer Moeller

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Elmer Moeller. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleElmer Moeller 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpElmer Moeller 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrElmer Moeller 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedElmer Moeller 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Elmer Moeller 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Elmer Moeller wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.