BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Holger Rune vs Zizou Bergs

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Holger Rune (55%) · Holger Rune at 60¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 16

Holger Rune60¢Zizou Bergs40¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Holger Rune

Consensus Traders

Holger Rune 55%

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

$77.27

Smart Money Entry

59¢ → 59.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralHolger Rune at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Holger Rune

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Holger Rune60%

Zizou Bergs41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Holger Rune6 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares7,542

Combined PnL+$67.31

Zizou Bergs5 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares5,897

Combined PnL+$9.96

Holger Rune — 55%Zizou Bergs — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Holger Rune. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleZizou Bergs 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrHolger Rune 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedHolger Rune 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Holger Rune 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
K5 k56	Holger Runeavg 58.8¢	$3.8K	$3.9K	+$72.84	57% 909-677 (1586)
VeryLucky888CTR	Zizou Bergsavg 40¢	$720	$1.3K	+$31.72	58% 53643-38159 (91802)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Zizou Bergsavg 42.5¢	$965.36	$930.7	-$18.5	49% 591-609 (1200)
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3	Holger Runeavg 61.2¢	$300.98	$295.08	-$5.9	45% 435-524 (959)
DA darkumbreon88	Holger Runeavg 60¢	$243.41	$243.41	-$2.03	65% 2214-1211 (3425)
LI LimousinCTR	Zizou Bergsavg 42.2¢	$173.63	$168.65	-$2.06	46% 2665-3073 (5738)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Holger Runeavg 57¢	$59.73	$61.81	+$2.08	52% 49211-46180 (95391)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Zizou Bergsavg 45.2¢	$14.93	$13.53	-$1.16	45% 14859-18189 (33048)
PA Pan9X<$100	Holger Runeavg 57¢	$7.41	$7.8	+$0.33	53% 28233-25512 (53745)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Holger Runeavg 58.2¢	$5.06	$5.05	+$0	53% 14808-13030 (27838)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Zizou Bergsavg 42.2¢	$4.33	$4.21	-$0.05	45% 2577-3112 (5689)

k56

Holger Rune

Invested

$3,838.24

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$72.84

Record

57%

909-677 (1586)

VeryLucky888CTR

Zizou Bergs

Invested

$720

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$31.72

Record

58%

53643-38159 (91802)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Zizou Bergs

Invested

$965.36

Value

$930.7

PnL

-$18.5

Record

49%

591-609 (1200)

0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3

Holger Rune

Invested

$300.98

Value

$295.08

PnL

-$5.9

Record

45%

435-524 (959)

darkumbreon88

Holger Rune

Invested

$243.41

Value

$243.41

PnL

-$2.03

Record

65%

2214-1211 (3425)

LimousinCTR

Zizou Bergs

Invested

$173.63

Value

$168.65

PnL

-$2.06

Record

46%

2665-3073 (5738)

Flaznorp<$100

Holger Rune

Invested

$59.73

Value

$61.81

PnL

+$2.08

Record

52%

49211-46180 (95391)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Zizou Bergs

Invested

$14.93

Value

$13.53

PnL

-$1.16

Record

45%

14859-18189 (33048)

Pan9X<$100

Holger Rune

Invested

$7.41

Value

$7.8

PnL

+$0.33

Record

53%

28233-25512 (53745)

ameisgoat11<$100

Holger Rune

Invested

$5.06

Value

$5.05

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

14808-13030 (27838)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Zizou Bergs

Invested

$4.33

Value

$4.21

PnL

-$0.05

Record

45%

2577-3112 (5689)

Research grade

NeutralHolger Rune at 60%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Holger Rune

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Holger Rune. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleZizou Bergs 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrHolger Rune 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedHolger Rune 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Holger Rune 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Holger Rune wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.