Will Lommel SK vs. KAA Gent end in a draw?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 81¢ · $386 held · ended Nov 1

Yes19¢No81¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

Total Value

$385.98

Combined PnL

-$18.07

Smart Money Entry

57.7¢ → 81¢

+40% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$244.18

Total Shares699

Combined PnL+$39.56

No3 traders

Total Value$141.81

Total Shares345

Combined PnL-$57.64

Yes — 57%No — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
fyrskenCTR	Yesavg 26¢	$130	$122.5	-$7.5	49% 290-305 (595)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 34.3¢	$72.2	$119.12	+$46.92	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
oieshfn345	Noavg 58.3¢	$169.37	$111.8	-$57.57	57% 1818-1368 (3186)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 52¢	$24.96	$24.72	-$0.24	50% 11182-10999 (22181)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 73¢	$5.11	$5.29	+$0.17	50% 25689-25525 (51214)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$1.32	$1.33	+$0.01	53% 5677-5082 (10759)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$2.3	$1.23	+$0.13	58% 42718-31089 (73807)

fyrskenCTR

Yes

Invested

$130

Value

$122.5

PnL

-$7.5

Record

49%

290-305 (595)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$72.2

Value

$119.12

PnL

+$46.92

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

oieshfn345

Invested

$169.37

Value

$111.8

PnL

-$57.57

Record

57%

1818-1368 (3186)

foooool<$100

Invested

$24.96

Value

$24.72

PnL

-$0.24

Record

50%

11182-10999 (22181)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$5.11

Value

$5.29

PnL

+$0.17

Record

50%

25689-25525 (51214)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.32

Value

$1.33

PnL

+$0.01

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.3

Value

$1.23

PnL

+$0.13

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.7%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.