Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on November 3?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 82¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$8.8K
-$649.61
74.4¢ → 82¢
+10% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Yesavg 72.5¢ | $3.7K | $4.2K | +$489.3 | 59% 1064-740 (1804) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR | Noavg 26.2¢ | $4.1K | $2.9K | $-1.2K | 66% 2458-1291 (3749) |
MA Marioy | Yesavg 79.1¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$59.08 | 81% 250-58 (308) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Yesavg 82.3¢ | $4.12 | $4.12 | +$0 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
GO gobblewobbleCTR<$100 | Noavg 17.7¢ | $2.51 | $2.5 | -$0.04 | 59% 877-611 (1488) |
Invested
$3,667.39
Value
$4.2K
PnL
+$489.3
Record
59%
1064-740 (1804)
Invested
$4,136.45
Value
$2.9K
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
66%
2458-1291 (3749)
Invested
$1,581.93
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$59.08
Record
81%
250-58 (308)
Invested
$4.12
Value
$4.12
PnL
+$0
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
Invested
$2.51
Value
$2.5
PnL
-$0.04
Record
59%
877-611 (1488)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.