Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on November 1?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 100¢ · $57K held · ends Nov 1

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 83%

Total Value

$57.3K

Combined PnL

$616.65

Smart Money Entry

95¢ → 100¢

+5% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$57.3K

Total Shares57,414

Combined PnL+$655.24

No2 traders

Total Value$2.3

Total Shares766

Combined PnL-$38.59

Yes — 83%No — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

42h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 86% · 7

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 83% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Yesavg 95.6¢	$40.2K	$40.1K	-$133.54	66% 2458-1291 (3749)
MA Marioy	Yesavg 92.8¢	$4.6K	$5.0K	+$322.5	81% 250-58 (308)
19 196874353278	Yesavg 98.8¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	+$30.45	45% 212-263 (475)
0X 0xDB5	Yesavg 95.7¢	$8.8K	$3.5K	+$297.75	59% 2238-1571 (3809)
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394	Yesavg 83.8¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$106.3	59% 1064-740 (1804)
Facaie	Yesavg 99.1¢	$726.4	$730.8	+$2.57	93% 1312-105 (1417)
TO Tokor	Yesavg 90.1¢	$690	$688.97	+$67.04	62% 795-490 (1285)
RI Rin2x	Yesavg 99.3¢	$322.81	$324.03	+$1.21	86% 2156-340 (2496)
GO gobblewobble	Yesavg 78.2¢	$153.27	$114.66	-$39.05	59% 877-611 (1488)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 99.5¢	$11.58	$11.61	+$0.02	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
PH PhongLeXBTCTR<$100	Noavg 5.3¢	$40.07	$2.28	-$38.17	49% 274-288 (562)
67 6742CTR<$100	Noavg 9¢	$0.45	$0.02	-$0.42	— 9-5 (14)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Yes

Invested

$40,244.78

Value

$40.1K

PnL

-$133.54

Record

66%

2458-1291 (3749)

Marioy

Yes

Invested

$4,640

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$322.5

Record

81%

250-58 (308)

196874353278

Yes

Invested

$3,978.97

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$30.45

Record

45%

212-263 (475)

0xDB5

Yes

Invested

$8,771.94

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$297.75

Record

59%

2238-1571 (3809)

0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394

Yes

Invested

$2,772.74

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$106.3

Record

59%

1064-740 (1804)

Facaie

Yes

Invested

$726.4

Value

$730.8

PnL

+$2.57

Record

93%

1312-105 (1417)

Tokor

Yes

Invested

$690

Value

$688.97

PnL

+$67.04

Record

62%

795-490 (1285)

Rin2x

Yes

Invested

$322.81

Value

$324.03

PnL

+$1.21

Record

86%

2156-340 (2496)

gobblewobble

Yes

Invested

$153.27

Value

$114.66

PnL

-$39.05

Record

59%

877-611 (1488)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.58

Value

$11.61

PnL

+$0.02

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

PhongLeXBTCTR<$100

Invested

$40.07

Value

$2.28

PnL

-$38.17

Record

49%

274-288 (562)

6742CTR<$100

Invested

$0.45

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.42

Record

—

9-5 (14)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

42h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 86% · 7

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 83% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.