Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on November 2?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 92¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 71%
$19.8K
$-1.5K
90¢ → 91.7¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 93.4¢ | $15.4K | $13.3K | $-2.0K | 66% 2458-1291 (3749) |
MA Marioy | Yesavg 88.9¢ | $2.7K | $2.8K | +$119.09 | 81% 250-58 (308) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Yesavg 73.1¢ | $1.9K | $2.4K | +$433.89 | 59% 1064-740 (1804) |
0X 0xDB5 | Yesavg 87¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$69.36 | 59% 2238-1571 (3809) |
19 196874353278CTR | Noavg 11¢ | $267.85 | $189.93 | -$66.96 | 45% 212-263 (475) |
GO gobblewobbleCTR<$100 | Noavg 20.3¢ | $15.6 | $5.98 | -$9.27 | 59% 877-611 (1488) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Yesavg 92.9¢ | $5.31 | $5.26 | -$0.05 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
Invested
$15,390.82
Value
$13.3K
PnL
$-2.0K
Record
66%
2458-1291 (3749)
Invested
$2,666.41
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$119.09
Record
81%
250-58 (308)
Invested
$1,938.18
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$433.89
Record
59%
1064-740 (1804)
Invested
$1,103.54
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$69.36
Record
59%
2238-1571 (3809)
Invested
$267.85
Value
$189.93
PnL
-$66.96
Record
45%
212-263 (475)
Invested
$15.6
Value
$5.98
PnL
-$9.27
Record
59%
877-611 (1488)
Invested
$5.31
Value
$5.26
PnL
-$0.05
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.