Bahcesehir Koleji vs. BC Lietkabelis Panevezys

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Bahcesehir Koleji (29%) · Bahcesehir Koleji at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 18

Bahcesehir Koleji>99¢BC Lietkabelis Panevezys<1¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bahcesehir Koleji

Consensus Traders

Bahcesehir Koleji 29%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

-$59.66

Smart Money Entry

98.2¢ → 99.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidBahcesehir Koleji at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bahcesehir Koleji

2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Bahcesehir Koleji100%

BC Lietkabelis Panevezys1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bahcesehir Koleji2 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares3,804

Combined PnL+$33.83

BC Lietkabelis Panevezys5 traders

Total Value$84.97

Total Shares5,374

Combined PnL-$93.49

Bahcesehir Koleji — 29%BC Lietkabelis Panevezys — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-46 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Bahcesehir Koleji. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBC Lietkabelis Panevezys 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000BC Lietkabelis Panevezys 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Bahcesehir Kolejiavg 98.2¢	$3.7K	$3.8K	+$34.01	45% 263-319 (582)
CI cigarettesARB<$100	BC Lietkabelis Panevezysavg 4.6¢	$126.31	$85.5	-$40.81	53% 5689-5114 (10803)
└ Bahcesehir Koleji leg	Bahcesehir Kolejiavg 96.1¢	$48.05	$48.93	+$0.88
└ BC Lietkabelis Panevezys leg	BC Lietkabelis Panevezysavg 4.6¢	$78.26	$36.58	-$41.69
LI LimousinCTR<$100	BC Lietkabelis Panevezysavg 6¢	$47.25	$25.99	-$21.26	30% 375-875 (1250)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	BC Lietkabelis Panevezysavg 6¢	$33.65	$18.51	-$15.14	30% 378-869 (1247)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	BC Lietkabelis Panevezysavg 6¢	$32.3	$17.77	-$14.53	31% 385-869 (1254)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	BC Lietkabelis Panevezysavg 1.6¢	$53.96	$16.49	-$37.47	51% 1842-1797 (3639)
SE sentrio<$100	Bahcesehir Kolejiavg 90¢	$16.21	$16.03	-$0.18	37% 346-578 (924)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	BC Lietkabelis Panevezysavg 6¢	$11.3	$6.22	-$5.08	31% 380-851 (1231)

SnakeBall

Bahcesehir Koleji

Invested

$3,730.31

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$34.01

Record

45%

263-319 (582)

cigarettesARB<$100

BC Lietkabelis Panevezys

Invested

$126.31

Value

$85.5

PnL

-$40.81

Record

53%

5689-5114 (10803)

Both legs:

Bahcesehir Koleji$48.0596.1¢+$0.88

BC Lietkabelis Panevezys$78.264.6¢-$41.69

LimousinCTR<$100

BC Lietkabelis Panevezys

Invested

$47.25

Value

$25.99

PnL

-$21.26

Record

30%

375-875 (1250)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

BC Lietkabelis Panevezys

Invested

$33.65

Value

$18.51

PnL

-$15.14

Record

30%

378-869 (1247)

VenusianCTR<$100

BC Lietkabelis Panevezys

Invested

$32.3

Value

$17.77

PnL

-$14.53

Record

31%

385-869 (1254)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

BC Lietkabelis Panevezys

Invested

$53.96

Value

$16.49

PnL

-$37.47

Record

51%

1842-1797 (3639)

sentrio<$100

Bahcesehir Koleji

Invested

$16.21

Value

$16.03

PnL

-$0.18

Record

37%

346-578 (924)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

BC Lietkabelis Panevezys

Invested

$11.3

Value

$6.22

PnL

-$5.08

Record

31%

380-851 (1231)

Research grade

AvoidBahcesehir Koleji at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Bahcesehir Koleji

2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-46 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Bahcesehir Koleji. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBC Lietkabelis Panevezys 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000BC Lietkabelis Panevezys 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bahcesehir Koleji wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.