Real Madrid vs. CB Murcia

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Real Madrid (38%) · Real Madrid at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Real Madrid>99¢CB Murcia<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Real Madrid

Consensus Traders

Real Madrid 38%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$470.72

Smart Money Entry

89.2¢ → 100¢

+12% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidReal Madrid at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Real Madrid

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Real Madrid100%

CB Murcia0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Real Madrid3 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,091

Combined PnL+$92.02

CB Murcia5 traders

Total Value$70.23

Total Shares5,766

Combined PnL-$562.74

Real Madrid — 38%CB Murcia — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Real Madridavg 87.2¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$44.5	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
OM omnibus-076daa	Real Madridavg 91.3¢	$502.18	$549.63	+$47.45	50% 23449-23463 (46912)
LO looppau	Real Madridavg 99.9¢	$156.09	$156.17	+$0.08	99% 15862-133 (15995)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	CB Murciaavg 7.5¢	$237.66	$47.05	-$190.61	46% 1997-2348 (4345)
SN SnakeBallCTR	CB Murciaavg 12¢	$367.63	$16.85	-$350.79	50% 48547-48163 (96710)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	CB Murciaavg 17¢	$40.94	$5.12	-$1.84	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	CB Murciaavg 17¢	$1.1	$1.15	+$0.05	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	CB Murciaavg 14.4¢	$19.62	$0.07	-$19.55	48% 70249-75962 (146211)

Flaznorp

Real Madrid

Invested

$1,340.56

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$44.5

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

omnibus-076daa

Real Madrid

Invested

$502.18

Value

$549.63

PnL

+$47.45

Record

50%

23449-23463 (46912)

looppau

Real Madrid

Invested

$156.09

Value

$156.17

PnL

+$0.08

Record

99%

15862-133 (15995)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

CB Murcia

Invested

$237.66

Value

$47.05

PnL

-$190.61

Record

46%

1997-2348 (4345)

SnakeBallCTR

CB Murcia

Invested

$367.63

Value

$16.85

PnL

-$350.79

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

VenusianCTR<$100

CB Murcia

Invested

$40.94

Value

$5.12

PnL

-$1.84

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

LimousinCTR<$100

CB Murcia

Invested

$1.1

Value

$1.15

PnL

+$0.05

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

38791873984189CTR<$100

CB Murcia

Invested

$19.62

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$19.55

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

Research grade

AvoidReal Madrid at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Real Madrid

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Real Madrid wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.