Will Eintracht Braunschweig win on 2026-09-06?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 67¢ · $237 held · ended Sep 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$237.46
-$2.93
67.2¢ → 66.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-4 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Mature
16h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LA LaarsY<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $86.96 | $90.35 | +$3.4 | 51% 3537-3437 (6974) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 70.4¢ | $73.77 | $69.74 | -$4.03 | 53% 60814-53199 (114013) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $60.87 | $59.53 | -$1.34 | 53% 16587-14762 (31349) |
US User7429CTR<$100 | Yesavg 36¢ | $13.69 | $12.74 | -$0.95 | 56% 9045-7209 (16254) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $3.85 | $3.33 | -$0.52 | 47% 11436-12872 (24308) |
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $1.15 | $1.68 | +$0.53 | 57% 19174-14173 (33347) |
Invested
$86.96
Value
$90.35
PnL
+$3.4
Record
51%
3537-3437 (6974)
RN1<$100Invested
$73.77
Value
$69.74
PnL
-$4.03
Record
53%
60814-53199 (114013)
Invested
$60.87
Value
$59.53
PnL
-$1.34
Record
53%
16587-14762 (31349)
Invested
$13.69
Value
$12.74
PnL
-$0.95
Record
56%
9045-7209 (16254)
Invested
$3.85
Value
$3.33
PnL
-$0.52
Record
47%
11436-12872 (24308)
Invested
$1.15
Value
$1.68
PnL
+$0.53
Record
57%
19174-14173 (33347)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.