SE Palmeiras leading at halftime?
1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (13%) · Yes at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 13%
$2.3K
-$231.06
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Yesavg 98.2¢ | $1.5K | $1.6K | +$27.33 | 53% 23554-20762 (44316) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 38.7¢ | $368.85 | $491.39 | +$122.54 | 58% 46712-33673 (80385) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 26¢ | $319.13 | $120.32 | -$198.81 | 51% 25773-24474 (50247) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Noavg 41.2¢ | $55.68 | $69.6 | +$13.92 | 53% 1437-1278 (2715) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Noavg 9.1¢ | $136.29 | $13.78 | -$122.51 | 51% 37678-36903 (74581) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Noavg 41.2¢ | $10.01 | $12.51 | +$2.5 | 52% 1386-1304 (2690) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Noavg 40¢ | $9.66 | $12.44 | +$2.78 | 53% 61382-53692 (115074) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Noavg 39.5¢ | $80.66 | $1.84 | -$78.82 | 50% 1336-1316 (2652) |
Invested
$1,541.73
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$27.33
Record
53%
23554-20762 (44316)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$368.85
Value
$491.39
PnL
+$122.54
Record
58%
46712-33673 (80385)
Invested
$319.13
Value
$120.32
PnL
-$198.81
Record
51%
25773-24474 (50247)
Invested
$55.68
Value
$69.6
PnL
+$13.92
Record
53%
1437-1278 (2715)
Invested
$136.29
Value
$13.78
PnL
-$122.51
Record
51%
37678-36903 (74581)
Invested
$10.01
Value
$12.51
PnL
+$2.5
Record
52%
1386-1304 (2690)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$9.66
Value
$12.44
PnL
+$2.78
Record
53%
61382-53692 (115074)
Invested
$80.66
Value
$1.84
PnL
-$78.82
Record
50%
1336-1316 (2652)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.