Will Botafogo FC vs. Londrina EC end in a draw?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$1.4K
$45.89
91.5¢ → 100¢
+9% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 93.6¢ | $770.48 | $813.97 | +$43.5 | 51% 25776-24479 (50255) |
 oieshfn345 | Noavg 85¢ | $319.6 | $353.44 | +$35.72 | 57% 2032-1505 (3537) |
CI cigarettes | Noavg 98.2¢ | $99.19 | $100.56 | +$1.36 | 53% 23594-20788 (44382) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 92.4¢ | $44.45 | $48.07 | +$3.62 | 47% 11740-13459 (25199) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24.9¢ | $29.65 | $28.63 | -$1.02 | 50% 1337-1318 (2655) |
RO Rocky31<$100 | Noavg 96.2¢ | $24.05 | $24.99 | +$0.94 | 74% 1900-652 (2552) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.6¢ | $62.71 | $24.06 | -$38.65 | 52% 1388-1305 (2693) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $3.8 | $4.7 | +$0.43 | 50% 25837-25546 (51383) |
Invested
$770.48
Value
$813.97
PnL
+$43.5
Record
51%
25776-24479 (50255)
oieshfn345Invested
$319.6
Value
$353.44
PnL
+$35.72
Record
57%
2032-1505 (3537)
Invested
$99.19
Value
$100.56
PnL
+$1.36
Record
53%
23594-20788 (44382)
Invested
$44.45
Value
$48.07
PnL
+$3.62
Record
47%
11740-13459 (25199)
Invested
$29.65
Value
$28.63
PnL
-$1.02
Record
50%
1337-1318 (2655)
Invested
$24.05
Value
$24.99
PnL
+$0.94
Record
74%
1900-652 (2552)
Invested
$62.71
Value
$24.06
PnL
-$38.65
Record
52%
1388-1305 (2693)
Invested
$3.8
Value
$4.7
PnL
+$0.43
Record
50%
25837-25546 (51383)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.