Spread: Londrina EC (-1.5)

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Clube Náutico Capibaribe (25%) · Clube Náutico Capibaribe at 80¢ · $392 held · ended Nov 11

Londrina EC20¢Clube Náutico Capibaribe80¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Clube Náutico Capibaribe

Consensus Traders

Clube Náutico Capibaribe 25%

Total Value

$391.54

Combined PnL

-$47.14

Smart Money Entry

70.2¢ → 80¢

+14% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralClube Náutico Capibaribe at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Clube Náutico Capibaribe

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Londrina EC20%

Clube Náutico Capibaribe80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Clube Náutico Capibaribe2 traders

Total Value$270.36

Total Shares395

Combined PnL-$7.07

Londrina EC6 traders

Total Value$121.18

Total Shares578

Combined PnL-$40.07

Clube Náutico Capibaribe — 25%Londrina EC — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Clube Náutico Capibaribe. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Clube Náutico Capibaribe) and the top 1000 (5 on Londrina EC) disagree here.

ctrLondrina EC 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedClube Náutico Capibaribe 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Londrina EC 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Clube Náutico Capibaribeavg 71¢	$213	$204	-$9	52% 472-438 (910)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Londrina ECavg 28.9¢	$133.73	$92.68	-$41.05	56% 1553-1230 (2783)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Clube Náutico Capibaribeavg 67.5¢	$64.43	$66.36	+$1.93	51% 1861-1809 (3670)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Londrina ECavg 28.2¢	$11.34	$12.44	+$1.1	30% 385-880 (1265)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Londrina ECavg 18¢	$6.48	$6.66	+$0.18	45% 267-323 (590)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Londrina ECavg 24.2¢	$5.68	$5.05	-$0.63	30% 384-884 (1268)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Londrina ECavg 28¢	$2.44	$2.7	+$0.26	31% 389-859 (1248)
RN1CTR<$100	Londrina ECavg 24¢	$1.58	$1.64	+$0.07	57% 4041-3054 (7095)

VeryLucky888

Clube Náutico Capibaribe

Invested

$213

Value

$204

PnL

-$9

Record

52%

472-438 (910)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Londrina EC

Invested

$133.73

Value

$92.68

PnL

-$41.05

Record

56%

1553-1230 (2783)

Flaznorp<$100

Clube Náutico Capibaribe

Invested

$64.43

Value

$66.36

PnL

+$1.93

Record

51%

1861-1809 (3670)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Londrina EC

Invested

$11.34

Value

$12.44

PnL

+$1.1

Record

30%

385-880 (1265)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Londrina EC

Invested

$6.48

Value

$6.66

PnL

+$0.18

Record

45%

267-323 (590)

LimousinCTR<$100

Londrina EC

Invested

$5.68

Value

$5.05

PnL

-$0.63

Record

30%

384-884 (1268)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Londrina EC

Invested

$2.44

Value

$2.7

PnL

+$0.26

Record

31%

389-859 (1248)

RN1CTR<$100

Londrina EC

Invested

$1.58

Value

$1.64

PnL

+$0.07

Record

57%

4041-3054 (7095)

Research grade

NeutralClube Náutico Capibaribe at 80%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Clube Náutico Capibaribe

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Clube Náutico Capibaribe. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Clube Náutico Capibaribe) and the top 1000 (5 on Londrina EC) disagree here.

ctrLondrina EC 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedClube Náutico Capibaribe 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Londrina EC 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Clube Náutico Capibaribe wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.8%

80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.