Exact Score: FC Schalke 04 0 - 0 FC Bayern München?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 98¢ · $5K held · ended Sep 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$4.8K
$-2.3K
95.8¢ → 98.5¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PA Paul973973 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | $-2.0K | 89% 987-125 (1112) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 89.4¢ | $1.4K | $1.1K | -$309.46 | 58% 50265-36309 (86574) |
 RN1 | Noavg 94.9¢ | $898.2 | $931.8 | +$33.6 | 53% 60045-52422 (112467) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $737.46 | $737.46 | +$0 | 58% 45420-32909 (78329) |
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000<$100 | Noavg 24.5¢ | $1.47 | $5.91 | +$4.44 | 42% 2367-3214 (5581) |
PV pvc975CTR<$100 | Yesavg 99.9¢ | $53.08 | $0.82 | -$52.25 | 98% 14684-327 (15011) |
Invested
$2,000
Value
$2.0K
PnL
$-2.0K
Record
89%
987-125 (1112)
Invested
$1,413.52
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$309.46
Record
58%
50265-36309 (86574)
RN1Invested
$898.2
Value
$931.8
PnL
+$33.6
Record
53%
60045-52422 (112467)
VeryLucky888Invested
$737.46
Value
$737.46
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
45420-32909 (78329)
Invested
$1.47
Value
$5.91
PnL
+$4.44
Record
42%
2367-3214 (5581)
Invested
$53.08
Value
$0.82
PnL
-$52.25
Record
98%
14684-327 (15011)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.