Consensus PnL $13K · win rate 91% (1056–102, n=1158) · PM monthly #773 · holds 19 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$12.9K
Record
1056W / 102L
Win Rate
91.0%
of 1158 settled
Batting Avg
33.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#220
Source
PM monthly #773
Trades
532
Markets
1,252
Volume
$3.8M
Top consensus positions
19 in listed consensus markets · 17 of 19 on the consensus side (89%)- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?Anthropic $25K · now 98¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (60% of 10)
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo $10K · now 96¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (72% of 72)
- Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes $7.3K · now 90¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (66% of 41)
- Anthropic IPO before 2027?Yes $6.7K · now 90¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (50% of 22)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $5.2K · now 95¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (86% of 158)
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?No $5.2K · now 100¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (59% of 22)
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?No $4.9K · now 94¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (56% of 27)
- Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?Yes $4.5K · now 86¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (67% of 24)
Specialties
1,066 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 94¢- Tennis
+6 pts
side won 99% of 421 · avg entry 93¢
ROI +5%
- Esports
+7 pts
side won 100% of 85 · avg entry 93¢
ROI +4%
- Soccer
+4 pts
side won 99% of 272 · avg entry 95¢
ROI +3%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 43% of 7)
- 30–50¢: 1%(won 57% of 7)
- 50–70¢: 0%(won 100% of 5)
- 70¢ and up: 98%(won 100% of 1047)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.