Bradley Braves vs. Davidson Wildcats

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Davidson Wildcats (63%) · Davidson Wildcats at 99¢ · $299 held · ended Nov 11

Bradley Braves<1¢Davidson Wildcats>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Davidson Wildcats

Consensus Traders

Davidson Wildcats 63%

Total Value

$299.39

Combined PnL

-$29.42

Smart Money Entry

91.4¢ → 99.1¢

+8% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidDavidson Wildcats at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Davidson Wildcats

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Bradley Braves1%

Davidson Wildcats99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Davidson Wildcats5 traders

Total Value$273.16

Total Shares288

Combined PnL-$26.38

Bradley Braves3 traders

Total Value$26.22

Total Shares218

Combined PnL-$3.04

Davidson Wildcats — 63%Bradley Braves — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Davidson Wildcats. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBradley Braves 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedDavidson Wildcats 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Davidson Wildcats 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	Davidson Wildcatsavg 94.1¢	$142.3	$107.66	-$24.04	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
RN1<$100	Davidson Wildcatsavg 90.1¢	$56.31	$58.36	+$2.05	58% 3802-2782 (6584)
38 38791873984189<$100	Davidson Wildcatsavg 89.3¢	$62.5	$58.1	-$4.4	48% 947-1017 (1964)
PA Pan9X<$100	Davidson Wildcatsavg 91.4¢	$44.92	$44.63	-$0.29	49% 443-470 (913)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Bradley Bravesavg 16¢	$12.38	$9.29	-$3.1	28% 284-730 (1014)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Bradley Bravesavg 6¢	$4.26	$8.52	+$4.26	54% 1656-1433 (3089)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Bradley Bravesavg 18¢	$12.62	$8.41	-$4.21	28% 274-715 (989)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Davidson Wildcatsavg 82¢	$4.1	$4.4	+$0.3	26% 180-518 (698)

takeormake

Davidson Wildcats

Invested

$142.3

Value

$107.66

PnL

-$24.04

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

RN1<$100

Davidson Wildcats

Invested

$56.31

Value

$58.36

PnL

+$2.05

Record

58%

3802-2782 (6584)

38791873984189<$100

Davidson Wildcats

Invested

$62.5

Value

$58.1

PnL

-$4.4

Record

48%

947-1017 (1964)

Pan9X<$100

Davidson Wildcats

Invested

$44.92

Value

$44.63

PnL

-$0.29

Record

49%

443-470 (913)

LimousinCTR<$100

Bradley Braves

Invested

$12.38

Value

$9.29

PnL

-$3.1

Record

28%

284-730 (1014)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Bradley Braves

Invested

$4.26

Value

$8.52

PnL

+$4.26

Record

54%

1656-1433 (3089)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Bradley Braves

Invested

$12.62

Value

$8.41

PnL

-$4.21

Record

28%

274-715 (989)

ameisgoat11<$100

Davidson Wildcats

Invested

$4.1

Value

$4.4

PnL

+$0.3

Record

26%

180-518 (698)

Research grade

AvoidDavidson Wildcats at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Davidson Wildcats

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Davidson Wildcats. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBradley Braves 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedDavidson Wildcats 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Davidson Wildcats 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Davidson Wildcats wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.