Spread: Charleston Cougars (-1.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Charleston Cougars (78%) · Charleston Cougars at 95¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 11

Charleston Cougars95¢Temple Owls5¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Charleston Cougars

Consensus Traders

Charleston Cougars 78%

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

$84.93

Smart Money Entry

54.6¢ → 94.5¢

+73% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidCharleston Cougars at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Charleston Cougars

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Charleston Cougars95%

Temple Owls6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Charleston Cougars7 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares8,037

Combined PnL+$114.98

Temple Owls2 traders

Total Value$48.76

Total Shares810

Combined PnL-$30.05

Charleston Cougars — 78%Temple Owls — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+50 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Charleston Cougars. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCharleston Cougars 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedCharleston Cougars 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Charleston Cougars 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Charleston Cougarsavg 50.4¢	$3.3K	$3.4K	+$40.13	57% 3226-2432 (5658)
RN1	Charleston Cougarsavg 90.7¢	$663.57	$666.01	+$2.44	57% 4056-3070 (7126)
38 38791873984189	Charleston Cougarsavg 59¢	$304.48	$295.03	+$62.05	48% 1420-1557 (2977)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Charleston Cougarsavg 51¢	$113.79	$113.79	+$0	49% 497-522 (1019)
VeryLucky888	Charleston Cougarsavg 49.5¢	$199.86	$64.65	+$5.88	52% 490-447 (937)
PA Pan9X<$100	Charleston Cougarsavg 79.4¢	$53.54	$57.96	+$4.42	49% 684-724 (1408)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Temple Owlsavg 9.3¢	$74.24	$44	-$30.24	51% 1908-1842 (3750)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Charleston Cougarsavg 50¢	$4.95	$5	+$0.05	33% 317-631 (948)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Temple Owlsavg 48¢	$4.57	$4.76	+$0.19	18% 49-220 (269)

HomeRunHazard

Charleston Cougars

Invested

$3,325.77

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$40.13

Record

57%

3226-2432 (5658)

RN1

Charleston Cougars

Invested

$663.57

Value

$666.01

PnL

+$2.44

Record

57%

4056-3070 (7126)

38791873984189

Charleston Cougars

Invested

$304.48

Value

$295.03

PnL

+$62.05

Record

48%

1420-1557 (2977)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Charleston Cougars

Invested

$113.79

Value

$113.79

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

497-522 (1019)

VeryLucky888

Charleston Cougars

Invested

$199.86

Value

$64.65

PnL

+$5.88

Record

52%

490-447 (937)

Pan9X<$100

Charleston Cougars

Invested

$53.54

Value

$57.96

PnL

+$4.42

Record

49%

684-724 (1408)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Temple Owls

Invested

$74.24

Value

$44

PnL

-$30.24

Record

51%

1908-1842 (3750)

ameisgoat11<$100

Charleston Cougars

Invested

$4.95

Value

PnL

+$0.05

Record

33%

317-631 (948)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Temple Owls

Invested

$4.57

Value

$4.76

PnL

+$0.19

Record

18%

49-220 (269)

Research grade

AvoidCharleston Cougars at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Charleston Cougars

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+50 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Charleston Cougars. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCharleston Cougars 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedCharleston Cougars 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Charleston Cougars 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Charleston Cougars wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.