Consensus PnL $257K · win rate 50% (473–478, n=951) · PM monthly #103 · holds 9 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$257.4K
Record
473W / 478L
Win Rate
50.0%
of 951 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1745
Source
PM monthly #103
Trades
121
Markets
1,047
Volume
$8.7M
Top consensus positions
9 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 9 on the consensus side (33%)- Falcons vs. Buccaneers: O/U 42.5Under $52K · now 88¢ · in at 49¢with the consensus (38% of 14)
- Spread: Jets (-1.5)Jets $34K · now 77¢ · in at 51¢against the consensus (Raiders)
- Raiders vs. JetsJets $15K · now 78¢ · in at 54¢against the consensus (Raiders)
- Spread: Jaguars (-10.5)Colts $9.2K · now 18¢ · in at 53¢against the consensus (Jaguars)
- Spread: Steelers (-3.5)Steelers $9.0K · now 81¢ · in at 48¢against the consensus (Browns)
- Browns vs. SteelersSteelers $8.6K · now 89¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (60% of 49)
- Spread: Bengals (-13.5)Titans $1.5K · now 75¢ · in at 48¢against the consensus (Bengals)
- Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5)Falcons $1.4K · now 28¢ · in at 52¢against the consensus (Buccaneers)
Specialties
417 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 56¢- MLB
+54 pts
side won 100% of 49 · avg entry 46¢
ROI +57%
- NFL
+44 pts
side won 100% of 93 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +47%
- NBA
+45 pts
side won 100% of 56 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +44%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 100% of 21)
- 30–50¢: 16%(won 99% of 68)
- 50–70¢: 65%(won 100% of 271)
- 70¢ and up: 14%(won 100% of 57)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.