Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (89%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Delaware State Hornets vs. Georgetown Hoyas: O/U 143.5

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 12¢ · $817 held · ended Nov 10

Over89¢Under11¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$816.64

Combined PnL

-$152.29

Smart Money Entry

47.2¢ → 11.5¢

-76% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 89%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over89%

Under12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$203.93

Total Shares229

Combined PnL+$93.94

Under4 traders

Total Value$178.95

Total Shares891

Combined PnL-$246.23

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 49.6¢	$865.75	$315.88	-$499.47	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.4¢	$102.35	$180.04	+$74.07
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.6¢	$709.38	$135.84	-$573.54
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 48¢	$105.14	$198.23	+$93.09	50% 1503-1507 (3010)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 48¢	$150.82	$117.87	-$32.96	48% 947-1017 (1964)
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.2¢	$55.72	$90.15	+$34.42
└ Under leg	Underavg 48¢	$95.1	$27.72	-$67.38
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 48¢	$165.47	$96.59	-$68.88	55% 119-96 (215)
RN1CTR	Underavg 46.5¢	$182.01	$54.76	-$127.26	58% 3802-2782 (6584)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$98	$14	-$36	51% 299-291 (590)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$27.7	$13.6	-$14.1	56% 488-383 (871)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 48.5¢	$4.85	$5.7	+$0.85	26% 180-518 (698)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$865.75

Value

$315.88

PnL

-$499.47

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

Both legs:

Over$102.3551.4¢+$74.07

Under$709.3849.6¢-$573.54

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$105.14

Value

$198.23

PnL

+$93.09

Record

50%

1503-1507 (3010)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$150.82

Value

$117.87

PnL

-$32.96

Record

48%

947-1017 (1964)

Both legs:

Over$55.7253.2¢+$34.42

Under$95.148¢-$67.38

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$165.47

Value

$96.59

PnL

-$68.88

Record

55%

119-96 (215)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$182.01

Value

$54.76

PnL

-$127.26

Record

58%

3802-2782 (6584)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$98

Value

$14

PnL

-$36

Record

51%

299-291 (590)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.7

Value

$13.6

PnL

-$14.1

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$4.85

Value

$5.7

PnL

+$0.85

Record

26%

180-518 (698)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 89%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance13.0%

11.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$666.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

766.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.