Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (50%). 0 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Detroit Titans vs. Xavier Musketeers: O/U 156.5

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 50¢ · $15K held · ended Nov 11

Over50¢Under50¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.1K

Combined PnL

$52.59

Smart Money Entry

49.5¢ → 50¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares9,733

Combined PnL+$241.46

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,964

Combined PnL-$188.86

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 49.9¢	$8.1K	$8.1K	+$0.33	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.9¢	$5.0K	$5.1K	+$13.98
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.2¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$13.65
RollAwayTheDew	Underavg 49.3¢	$4.6K	$4.8K	+$255.27	3% 7-227 (234)
HI hi774c	Overavg 51¢	$2.1K	$1.9K	-$190.22	8% 37-422 (459)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 53.9¢	$220	$206.19	-$13.81	10% 88-785 (873)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Overavg 47¢	$22.56	$24	+$1.44	50% 1504-1508 (3012)
VeryLucky888<$100	Overavg 49¢	$6.2	$5.82	-$0.38	51% 300-292 (592)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Overavg 47¢	$4.7	$5	+$0.3	56% 488-383 (871)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$8,075.99

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$0.33

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

Both legs:

Under$5,036.6449.9¢+$13.98

Over$3,039.3550.2¢-$13.65

RollAwayTheDew

Under

Invested

$4,593.75

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$255.27

Record

7-227 (234)

hi774c

Over

Invested

$2,104.91

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$190.22

Record

37-422 (459)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$220

Value

$206.19

PnL

-$13.81

Record

10%

88-785 (873)

Flaznorp<$100

Over

Invested

$22.56

Value

$24

PnL

+$1.44

Record

50%

1504-1508 (3012)

VeryLucky888<$100

Over

Invested

$6.2

Value

$5.82

PnL

-$0.38

Record

51%

300-292 (592)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Over

Invested

$4.7

Value

PnL

+$0.3

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.