Spread: Vanderbilt Commodores (-14.5)

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Memphis Tigers (63%) · Memphis Tigers at 55¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 11

Vanderbilt Commodores46¢Memphis Tigers54¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Memphis Tigers

Consensus Traders

Memphis Tigers 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$105.38

Smart Money Entry

50.8¢ → 54.5¢

+7% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidMemphis Tigers at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Memphis Tigers

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Vanderbilt Commodores46%

Memphis Tigers55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Memphis Tigers5 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares7,196

Combined PnL+$228

Vanderbilt Commodores3 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares4,557

Combined PnL-$122.62

Memphis Tigers — 63%Vanderbilt Commodores — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+25 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Memphis Tigers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMemphis Tigers 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Memphis Tigers 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Memphis Tigersavg 50.6¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$161.9	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
GL glennyorkshireCTR	Vanderbilt Commodoresavg 49.9¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$120	46% 33-39 (72)
HI hi774c	Memphis Tigersavg 50¢	$895.16	$948.86	+$53.71	8% 37-422 (459)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Memphis Tigersavg 52.6¢	$641.25	$652.57	+$11.32	54% 1645-1416 (3061)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Vanderbilt Commodoresavg 47¢	$404.09	$195.76	+$11.93	48% 939-1010 (1949)
└ Memphis Tigers leg	Memphis Tigersavg 50.6¢	$94.5	$99.97	+$12.96
└ Vanderbilt Commodores leg	Vanderbilt Commodoresavg 47¢	$96.82	$95.79	-$1.03
FL FlaznorpCTR	Vanderbilt Commodoresavg 47¢	$185.18	$183.21	-$1.97	50% 1433-1435 (2868)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Vanderbilt Commodoresavg 48¢	$31.2	$30.55	-$0.65	56% 119-94 (213)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Memphis Tigersavg 51¢	$4.95	$5	+$0.05	26% 177-517 (694)
PA Pan9X<$100	Memphis Tigersavg 50.5¢	$20.2	$2.68	+$1.03	49% 440-464 (904)

HomeRunHazard

Memphis Tigers

Invested

$2,144.12

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$161.9

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

glennyorkshireCTR

Vanderbilt Commodores

Invested

$2,045.84

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$120

Record

46%

33-39 (72)

hi774c

Memphis Tigers

Invested

$895.16

Value

$948.86

PnL

+$53.71

Record

37-422 (459)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Memphis Tigers

Invested

$641.25

Value

$652.57

PnL

+$11.32

Record

54%

1645-1416 (3061)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Vanderbilt Commodores

Invested

$404.09

Value

$195.76

PnL

+$11.93

Record

48%

939-1010 (1949)

Both legs:

Memphis Tigers$94.550.6¢+$12.96

Vanderbilt Commodores$96.8247¢-$1.03

FlaznorpCTR

Vanderbilt Commodores

Invested

$185.18

Value

$183.21

PnL

-$1.97

Record

50%

1433-1435 (2868)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Vanderbilt Commodores

Invested

$31.2

Value

$30.55

PnL

-$0.65

Record

56%

119-94 (213)

ameisgoat11<$100

Memphis Tigers

Invested

$4.95

Value

PnL

+$0.05

Record

26%

177-517 (694)

Pan9X<$100

Memphis Tigers

Invested

$20.2

Value

$2.68

PnL

+$1.03

Record

49%

440-464 (904)

Research grade

AvoidMemphis Tigers at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Memphis Tigers

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+25 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Memphis Tigers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMemphis Tigers 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Memphis Tigers 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Memphis Tigers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.